June 8, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JUNE 6-8

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #23 of 2014 now looks like $156 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s $165 million estimate but still 4% above the norm for this weekend and 9% above the same weekend last year.  

Opening at 3,173 theaters, The Fault in Our Stars from 20th Century Fox grossed $26.1 million through Friday but crashed to $12.6 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a still very good $48.2 million opening three-day weekend (closer to but still above our $41.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $15,200 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (82% positive overall and a similar 81% positive with top critics). The Fault in Our Stars has been adjusted to a $145 million total domestic estimate.

Opening at 3,490 theaters, Edge of Tomorrow from Warner Brothers grossed $10.7 million through Friday and a similar $10.5 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $29.1 million opening weekend (very close to our $29.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very somewhat above average three-day average of $8,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is especially positive for a sci-fi action film (89% positive overall and 86% positive with top critics). Edge of Tomorrow is headed for $86 million total domestic.

Maleficent is headed for $33.5 million in its second weekend (down 52% from last weekend and slightly above our $30.6 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Maleficent has been adjusted up to $207 million.  X-Men: Days of Future Past is headed for $14.7 million in its third weekend (down 55% from last weekend and now comfortably below our $16.3 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for X-Men: Days of Future Past has been adjusted to $224 million.  

Weekend 23: June 6-8, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Fault in Our Stars Fox [41.5] 55.0 48.2 26.1–12.6 145
Maleficent Dis [30.6] 33.0 33.5 10.1–13.5 207
Edge of Tomorrow WB [29.5] 30.0 29.1 10.7–10.5 86
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [16.3] 15.5 14.7 4.5–6.2 224
A Million Ways to Die in the West Uni [7.3] 7.0 7.2 2.3–2.9 45
Godzilla WB [5.9] 6.2 5.9 1.8–2.5 197
Neighbors Uni [4.9] 5.1 5.2 1.6–2.2 154
Blended WB [4.7] 4.1 4.1 1.3–1.7 45
Chef OpenR [2.5] 2.7 2.6 .72–1.1 21
Million Dollar Arm Dis [2.0] 2.0 1.8 .59–.79 37

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $156 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 9% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 23 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $156 The Fault in Our Stars $48.2, Edge of Tomorrow $29.1
2013 $143 The Purge $34.1, The Internship $17.3
2012 $174 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted $60.3, Prometheus $51.1
2011 $132 Super 8 $35.5, Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer $6.1
2010 $145 The Karate Kid $55.7, The A-Team $25.7
Avg 2010-13 $150

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.