WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES JUNE 17-19

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>Green Lantern stumbled on Saturday and the opening weekend now looks like $52.7 million.  Overall, the weekend is down 24% from last year.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Green Lantern will should finish its domestic run with $146 million, while Mr Popper’s Penguins is headed for $64 million.  Super 8 has been upgraded to $132 million.  X-Men: First Class has been downgraded a touch to $156 million.  The Hangover Part II is on track for $258 million.  Kung Fu Panda 2 is now looking like $172 million domestic.  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is now looking like a $239 million final, while Bridesmaids has been upgraded yet again to $168 million.  

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Green Lantern opened with $13,806 per theater at 3,816 theaters ($52.7 million for Friday-Sunday).  Mr Popper’s Penguins opened with a very average $5,451 at 3,339 theaters ($18.2 million).  In its fifth week but first wide release week, Midnight in Paris declined 10% to $5.2 million — $5,046 per theater at 1,038 theaters.  Tree of Life (fourth week) ($9,781 at 114 locations) and has grossed $3.85 million to date.  The Art of Getting By belly flopped with $1,148 per theater at 610 locations.  Ouch.

June 17-19, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Green Lantern              (WB)     $52.7             $146
Super 8                   (Par)     $21.3   -40%      $132++
Mr Popper’s Penguins      (Fox)     $18.2             $ 64
X-Men: First Class        (Fox)     $11.5   -52%      $156
The Hangover Part II       (WB)     $ 9.6   -45%      $258
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)     $ 8.7   -47%      $172
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)     $ 6.2   -43%      $239
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $ 7.5   -26%      $168++
Judy Moody Not Bummer     (Rel)     $ 2.2   -63%      $ 13
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 5.2   -10%      $ 42

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 
 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $145 million total, down 24% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #24
     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $145  (-3% vs 2007-10 average; -24% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $150 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $191  Toy Story 3 $110, Jonah Hex $5.5
2009  $145  The Proposal $34, Year One $20
2008  $138  Get Smart $39, The Love Guru $14
2007  $125  Evan Almighty $31, 1408 $21

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Cars 2 from Disney and Bad Teacher from Sony.  Those movies will be compared to Grown Ups ($40.5 million opening weekend) and Knight & Day ($20 million). 

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post.