June 16, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates JUNE 14-16

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Happy Father’s Day!

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #24 of 2013 looks like a really good $192 million for the top 12 films, not quite the $200+ million we forecast Wednesday but still up 27% from the average for this weekend the past few years and up well over 50% from last year’s disappointing weekend from hell (with the openings for Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy).

Opening at 4,207 theaters late Thursday, Man of Steel from Warner Brothers grossed $44 million Friday and $36.3 million Saturday (after collecting $12 million in previews Thursday) and is on track for a $113 million opening three-day weekend (a touch above the $111 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). Thursday-Sunday will total around $125.1 million. The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $26,900 per theater for the weekend (more than five times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), and critical sentiment is middling: 57% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics 54% positive). Man of Steel is headed for $315 million total domestic, allowing the leadership at Warner Brothers to breathe a lot easier. They are back in the race this year.  Look for the updated Studio Scorecard later today.

Opening at 3,005 theaters Wednesday, This Is the End from Sony grossed $6.9 million Friday and $7.4 million Saturday, now on track for a $20.5 million opening weekend (a bit below the $23 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $6,700 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is enthusiastic: 84% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics, as well as top critics. With the $12.3 million from Wednesday and Thursday, the end of the world comedy should total $32.8 million through Sunday. This Is the End is headed for $90 million total domestic.

Weekend 24:June 14-16, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Man of Steel WB [111] 111.0 113.1 44.0–36.3 315
This Is the End Sony [23.0] 21.0 20.5 6.9–7.5 90
Now You See Me Summit [10.7] 10.7 10.3 3.3–3.9 113
Fast & Furious 6 Uni [9.9] 9.3 9.4 2.7–3.5 244
The Purge Uni [12.6] 8.5 8.2 2.9–3.1 64
The Internship Fox [8.7] 7.5 7.0 2.3–2.6 45
Epic Fox [7.2] 6.2 6.0 1.8–2.2 114
Star Trek Into Darkness Par [5.6] 6.0 5.7 1.4–2.2 232
After Earth Sony [4.5] 3.8 3.7 1.1–1.4 61
Before Midnight Sony [2.9] 1.5 9

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are still looking like $192 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 56% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #24 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $192 Man of Steel $113.1, This Is the End $20.5
2012 $123 Rock of Ages $14.4, That’s My Boy $13.5
2011 $147 Green Lantern $53.2, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18.4
2010 $191 Toy Story 3 $110.3, Jonah Hex $5.4
2009 $145 The Proposal $33.6, Year One $19.6
Avg 2009-12 $152

Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.