June 23, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates JUNE 21-23

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #25 of 2013 still looks like an excellent $223 million for the top 12 films, up 32-42% from the same weekend in recent years. The two wide openers clicked with audiences, with Monsters University doing as well as we forecast but World War Z opening much stronger than expected.

Opening at 4,004 theaters Friday, Monsters University from Pixar and Disney grossed $30.5 million Friday and $28.8 million Saturday, now on track for an $82.0 million opening weekend (now a touch above the $80 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $20,500 per theater for the weekend (about four times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is positive (although nowhere near the universally positive Monsters, Inc. reviews): 76% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics a similar 74% positive). Monsters University is now headed for $263 million total domestic, below the $289.9 million domestic gross for November 2001’s Monsters, Inc.

Opening at 3,607 theaters Friday, World War Z from Paramount grossed $25.2 million Friday and $22.6 million Saturday, still on track for a $66.0 million opening weekend (obliterating the $44.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $18,300 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is tilting positive: 66% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics, compared to 71% positive with top critics. World War Z is headed for $192 million total domestic.

Weekend 25:

June 21-23, 2013

($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Monsters University Dis [80.0] 76.8 82.0 30.5–28.8 263
World War Z Par [44.5] 66.1 66.0 25.2–22.6 192
Man of Steel WB [50.5] 40.0 41.2 12.7–16.3 302
This Is the End Sony [12.0] 13.2 13.0 4.1–4.8 96
Now You See Me Summit [6.8] 7.4 7.9 2.4–3.2 117
Fast & Furious 6 Uni [4.8] 4.6 4.7 1.4–1.9 240
The Internship Fox [3.6] 3.1 3.4 1.1–1.3 45
The Purge Uni [2.9] 3.3 3.4 1.2–1.3 61
Star Trek Into Darkness Par [3.0] 3.0 3.0 .85–1.3 227
The Bling Ring A24 [2.5] 2.1 2.0 .72–.67 9
Epic Fox [3.0] 1.6 1.7 .52–.69 109

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $223 million total Friday-Sunday, steady with yesterday’s estimate and still up 32% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 42% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #25 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $223 Monsters University $82.0, World War Z $66.0, The Bling Ring $2.0
2012 $157 Brave $66.3, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Killer $16.3
2011 $170 Cars 2 $66.1, Bad Teacher $31.6
2010 $157 Grown Ups $40.5, Knight & Day $20.1
2009 $193 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $109.0, My Sister’s Keeper $12.4
Avg 2009-12 $169

Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.