June 24, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES June 22-24 — Animation Rules

The weekend continues to look very similar to the way it did yesterday morning.  Brave now looks like a $66.7 million opening weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  Animation takes the second spot this weekend, with Madagascar 3 on track for over $20 million, a very good number for a third weekend.  Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter is now on track for a $16.5 million opening, according to 20th Century Fox, while Seeking a Friend for the End of the World has been upgraded slightly by Focus/ Universal to $3.8 million (still DOA).    

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $159 million for the weekend, about the same as it looked yesterday and down moderately from past years.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Brave ($219 million), Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($41 million) and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ($14 million).

Second week films:  Rock of Ages ($48 million, up slightly from the initial estimate last week) and That’s My Boy ($46 million, up substantially from last week).

Third week films:  Madagascar 3 ($223 million, up again somewhat) and Prometheus ($136 million, even with last week).

Fourth week films:  Snow White and the Huntsman ($157 million, even with last week).

Fifth week films: Men in Black 3 ($183 million, even with last week) and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($44 million, close to last week).


Weekend 25: June 22-24, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Brave Dis Pix 66.7 219
Madagascar 3 Par DW -41% 20.2 223
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox 16.5 41
Prometheus Fox -52% 10.0 136
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni -40% 8.0 157
Rock of Ages WB  -45% 8.0 48
That’s My Boy Sony  -41% 7.9 46
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -21% 7.0 607
Men in Black 3 Par -44% 5.6 183
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Foc Uni 3.8 14
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni +52% 3.4 n/a
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox -29% 1.6 44


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $159 million total Friday-Sunday, better than we forecast Wednesday but still down 7% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 9% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #25 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $159 Brave $67, Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter $16.5, Seeking a Friend $4
2011 $170 Cars 2 $66, Bad Teacher $32
2010 $157 Grown Ups $41, Knight & Day $20
2009 $193 Transformers Revenge of the Fallen $109, My Sister’s Keeper $12
2008 $180 Wall-E $63, Wanted $51
Avg 2008-11 $175

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend are Ted from Universal, Magic Mike from Warner Brothers, Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection from Lionsgate and People Like Us from Disney.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Transforners: Dark of the Moon ($97.9 million opening weekend), Larry Crowne ($13.1 million) and Monte Carlo ($7.5 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.