June 26, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Cars 2 is looking like a $68 million opening weekend now, lower than the estimate based on Friday’s numbers but very close to the initial ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Bad Teacher is looking like a solid $31 million for the R-rated comedy.  The weekend is now looking like 10% higher than the same weekend in 2010, a somewhat weaker performance than estimated yesterday. 

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Cars 2 is headed for a domestic gross of $183 million, while Bad Teacher is on track for an even $100 million.  Green Lantern has been downgraded to $126 million, while Mr Popper’s Penguins is still headed for $65 million.  Super 8 has been upgraded slightly again to $135 million.  X-Men: First Class is still headed for $153 million, The Hangover Part II for $260 million, and Kung Fu Panda 2 for $170 million domestic.   

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Cars 2 opened with $16,525 per theater at 4,115 theaters ($68.0 million for Friday-Sunday).  Bad Teacher opened with an above average $10,167 at 3,049 theaters ($31.0 million).  In its sixth week, Midnight in Paris declined a paltry 8% to $4.5 million — $4,712 per theater at 951 theaters, bringing its total to $28.6 million to date.  Tree of Life ($6,326 at 215 locations in its fifth week) has grossed $5.9 million to date.  A Better Life is the indie standout, opening with $15,000 per theater this weekend at 4 locations. 

June 24-26, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Cars 2                    (Dis)     $68.0             $183
Bad Teacher              (Sony)     $31.0             $100
Green Lantern              (WB)     $18.3   -65%      $126–
Super 8                   (Par)     $12.1   -44%      $135
Mr Popper’s Penguins      (Fox)     $10.3   -44%      $ 65
X-Men: First Class        (Fox)     $ 6.6   -45%      $153
The Hangover Part II       (WB)     $ 5.9   -42%      $260
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $ 5.4   -24%      $168
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)     $ 4.7   -29%      $244
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 4.5   – 8%      $ 45+
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)     $ 4.1   -54%      $170

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $172 million total, up 10% from the same calendar weekend last year.  However, when we factor in weekday business this past week, it looks like the full week comparison to last year will be flat.  Details on that tomorrow.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #25
2011  $172  (
+2% vs 2007-10 average; +10% vs 2010) 

Avg   $169 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $157  Grown Ups $40, Knight & Day $20    

2009  $193  Transformers Revenge $109, My Sister’s Keeper $12
2008  $180  Wall-E $63, Wanted $51
2007  $147  Ratatouille $47, Live Free or Die Hard $33

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Transformers: Dark of the Moon from Paramount/ DreamWorks, romantic comedy Larry Crowne from Universal and romantic comedy Monte Carlo from Fox.  Those movies will be compared to Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($65 million opening weekend) and The Last Airbender ($40 million)

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers). 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.