July 1, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Ted now looks like a $54.1 million opening weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  Warner Brothers has pulled Magic Mike’s weekend estimate below $40 million, while Madea’s Witness Protection is down a bit to $26.4 million.   Brave is on track for a 49% decline (a very average number and worse than quality animation can do), but the film is still on pace for a $220 million domestic gross.     

All in all a pretty good weekend, with a critical mass of popular films playing simultaneously.  The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $197 million for the weekend, about the same as it looked yesterday and up versus prior years.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Ted ($170 million), Magic Mike ($129 million), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($83 million) and People Like Us ($16 million).

Second week films: Brave ($220 million, even with last week’s initial estimate), Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($38 million, down slightly from last week) and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ($8 million, down from last week).

Third week films:  Rock of Ages ($43 million, back down to the first week estimate) and That’s My Boy ($42 million, down slightly from last week).

Fourth week films:  Madagascar 3 ($220 million, down a touch from last week) and Prometheus ($133 million, down slightly from last week).

Fifth week films:  Snow White and the Huntsman ($158 million, even with last week).

Weekend 26: June 29-July 1, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Ted Uni 54.1 170
Magic Mike WB 39.2 129
Brave Dis Pix -49% 34.0 220
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG 26.4 83
Madagascar 3 Par DW -40% 11.8 220
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox -63% 6.0 38
Prometheus Fox -50% 4.9 133
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni +44% 4.9 n/a
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni -46% 4.4 158
People Like Us Dis 4.3 16
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -41% 4.2 609
Men in Black 3 Par -49% 2.9 183


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $197 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than we forecast Wednesday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year but more significantly up 16% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #26 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $197 Ted $54, Magic Mike $39, Madea’s Witness Protection $26
2011 $192 Transformers Dark Moon $98, Larry Crowne $13
2010 $181 Twilight Eclipse $65, Last Airbender $40
2009 $156 Ice Age Dawn Dinosaurs $42, Public Enemies $25
2008 $153 Hancock $63
Avg 2008-11 $170

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend are The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony (actually opening Tuesday), Katy Perry: Part of Me from Paramount (opening Thursday) and Savages from Universal (opening Friday).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Horrible Bosses ($28.3 million opening weekend) and Zookeeper ($20.1 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

NEVER MISS A SHOWBUZZDAILY POST.  Sign up for our daily email summary of the latest news and reviews.  It’s easy — just enter your email address in the box under “Sign Up for Our Mailing List” on the top right side of this page and click “Join Now”.  

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.