June 5, 2011

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES JUNE 3-5: Box Office Still Strong Although X-Men: First Class Does Not Overly Impress

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Weekend Studio Estimates are very similar to Saturday’s early weekend estimates.  The weekend looks to be up 28% from 2010, and the year-to-date tally is now down only 7% from last year (after being down as much as 26% earlier in the year).   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that X-Men: First Class should finish its domestic run with $168 million.  The Hangover Part II has been downgraded to $266 million thanks to a 62% weekend decline.  Kung Fu Panda 2 now looking like $168 million domestic after declining a more moderate 49%.  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is now looking like a $248 million final, while Bridesmaids has been upgraded to $145 million.  

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, X-Men: First Class opened with $15,380 per theater at 3,641 theaters ($56.0 million for Friday-Sunday).  In its third week, Midnight in Paris made $2.9 million — $19,838 per theater at only 147 theaters.  Tree of Life (second week) continues to rack up impressive per theater numbers ($31,039 at 20 locations).  From Focus Features, Beginners opened at 5 theaters and averaged a very good $27,039.  Submarine (Weinstein) averaged an okay $10,189 at 4 theaters, while Beautiful Boy (Anchor Bay Films) and Women, Art, Revolution (Zeitgeist Films) opened with sub-par averages of $4,025 and $3,181, respectively.

June 3-5, 2011                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
X-Men: First Class        (Fox)     $56.0             $168
The Hangover Part II       (WB)     $32.4   -62%      $266
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)     $24.3   -49%      $168
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)     $18.0   -55%      $248
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $12.1   -27%      $145
Thor                      (Par)     $ 4.2   -56%      $189
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $ 3.2   -49%      $212
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 2.9   +51%       n/a

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $156 million total, up 28% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #22
2011  $156  (
+7% vs 2007-10 average; +28% vs 2010) 

Avg   $146 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $122  Get Him to Greek $18, Killers $16, Marmaduke $12

2009  $161  The Hangover $45, Land of the Lost $19
2008  $171  Kung Fu Panda $60, You Don’t Mess Zohan $38
2007  $130  Ocean’s Thirteen $36, Surf’s Up $18

Year-to-date it looks like 2011 is now down 7% from 2010, an improvement of two percentage points from last week.  Exact numbers will be available Monday when the box office actuals are released.

Next Weekend

Opening next week is Super 8 from Paramount, along with Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer from Relativity.  Those movies will be compared to The Karate Kid ($55.7 million opening weekend) and The A-Team ($25.7 million)

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers). 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.