March 3, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #9 of 2013 is a little better than it appeared yesterday but still down 38% from the same weekend the last few years.  Jack the Giant Slayer opened reasonably well, but there are no others films doing significant business (weekends over $10 million).  What a mess.        

Opening at 3,525 theaters Friday, Jack the Giant Slayer from Warner Brothers grossed $7.7 Friday and a decent $12.1 million Saturday and is now on track for a $28 million opening weekend (now slightly beating the $25.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   Jack should finish with $82 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,771 theaters, 21 and Over from Relativity grossed $3.3 million Friday and $3.4 million Saturday and is on track for a $9 million opening weekend (still well below the $15.1 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   21 and Over is headed for maybe $24 million total domestic. 

Opening at 2,700 theaters, The Last Exorcism Part II from CBS Films grossed $3.2 million Friday and Saturday and is on track for an $8 million opening weekend (below the already soft $9.6 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).  Last Exorcism Part II is on track for maybe $13 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,118 theaters, Phantom from RCR Media is on track for a $460,000 opening weekend (well below the hideous $1.3 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).  Phantom is headed for maybe $1 million total domestic.

Weekend 9: March 1-3, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri-Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Jack the Giant Slayer WB [25.8] 23.8 28.0 7.7–12.1 82
Identity Thief Uni [8.6] 9.2 9.7 2.7–4.7 132
21 and Over Rel [15.1] 8.7 9.0 3.3–3.4 24
The Last Exorcism Part II CBS [9.6] 7.9 8.0 3.2–3.2 13
Snitch Summit [7.6] 7.1 7.7 2.1–3.5 44
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [6.8] 5.9 6.7 1.3–3.3 57
Safe Haven Rel [5.9] 6.2 6.3 2.0–2.8 68
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [5.1] 5.9 5.9 1.6–2.7 128
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox [4.9] 4.2 4.5 1.2–2.1 67
Dark Skies Weins [3.5] 3.5 3.6 1.1–1.6 16
Phantom RCR [1.3] .49 .46 .16–.20 1

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $94 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s $87 million estimate but still down 33% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 38% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #9 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $94 Jack Giant Slayer $28, 21 and Over $9, Last Exorcism II $8
2012 $152 Dr Seuss’ The Lorax $70, Project X $21
2011 $121 Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010 $186 Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn’s Finest $13
2009 $102 Watchmen $55
Avg 2009-12 $140

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.