March 17, 2013


Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #11 of 2013 is now looking strictly mediocre.  Yesterday it appeared that the weekend would be up slightly from the same weekend in past years, but now it is down slightly from previous years.  Oz remains the only real draw at the box office (now headed for over $250 million domestic).        

Opening at 2,507 theaters, The Call from Sony grossed $6.2 million Friday and $6.9 million Saturday (an unspectacular Saturday bump) and is on track for a $17.1 million opening weekend (still well ahead of the $11.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a decent $6,800 per theater for the weekend (comfortably above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is a soft 42% positive.  The Call is headed for maybe $49 million total domestic. 

Opening at 3,160 theaters Friday, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone from Warner Brothers grossed a pitiful $3.7 Friday and an equally mediocre $4.1 million Saturday and is on track for a $10.3 million opening weekend (below the very modest $13.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a bad $3,300 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are not amazed: only 39% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Burt Wonderstone should finish with $30 million total domestic.

Weekend 11 March 15-17, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [43.5] 44.4 42.2 11.4–18.2 252
The Call Sony [11.5] 18.3 17.1 6.2–6.9 49
Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB [13.5] 11.3 10.3 3.7–4.1 30
Jack the Giant Slayer WB [5.4] 6.9 6.2 1.8–2.8 65
Identity Thief Uni [4.2] 4.6 4.5 1.4–2.0 140
Snitch Summit [3.3] 3.8 3.5 1.1–1.6 45
21 and Over Rel [3.7] 2.8 2.6 .92–1.0 27
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [2.4] 2.6 2.6 .75–1.2 130
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [2.2] 2.8 2.3 .62–1.0 61
Dead Man Down FilmDis [2.8] 2.0 2.0 .64–.88 12

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $97 million total Friday-Sunday, down a bit from yesterday’s $103 million estimate and now down 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 1% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #11 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $97 The Call $17, Incredible Burt Wonderstone $10
2012 $98 21 Jump Street $36, Friends with Kids $1.5
2011 $103 Limitless $19, The Lincoln Lawyer $13, Paul $13
2010 $115 Diary of a Wimpy Kid $22, The Bounty Hunter $21, Repo Men $6
2009 $96 Knowing $24, I Love You Man $18, Duplicity $14
Avg 2009-12 $103

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.