WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 22-24 — Updated

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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #12 of 2013 is another down weekend (making it 10 down weekends out of 12 this year so far): $130 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday (down 9% from an average comparable weekend the past few years and down 36% from the same weekend last year dominated by the monstrous Hunger Games).  

Opening at 4,046 theaters, The Croods from DreamWorks Animation and 20th Century Fox grossed $11.6 million Friday and $18.9 million Saturday and is now on track for a $44.7 million opening weekend (somewhat above the $40.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a solid $11,050 per theater for the weekend (double the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is a fairly positive 65% positive.  The Croods are now headed for $155 million total domestic (a slight revision upward from yesterday).

As we discussed Wednesday in the Box Office Predictions:  The Croods is not a disaster like Rise of the Guardians ($103 million domestic) or Prince of Egypt ($101 million) or Antz ($91 million).  And no one expects Shrek 2 ($441 million) or Shrek the Third ($323 million), but its far from the “zone” of Kung Fu Panda ($215 million) or Monsters vs Aliens ($198 million) or Madagascar ($194 million).  Look for the anticipated negative chatter from Wall Street analysts tonight and tomorrow morning about the under-performing DreamWorks Animation.

Opening at 3,098 theaters Friday, Olympus Has Fallen from FilmDistrict grossed $10 million Friday and $12.4 million Saturday and is on pace for a $30.5 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $22.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $9,850 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are split: 51% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Olympus Has Fallen should finish with $89 million total domestic.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Opening at 2,160 theaters Friday, Admission from Focus/ Universal whiffed with $2.1 million Friday and $2.7 million Saturday and is on track for a struggling $6.4 million opening weekend (well below the $9.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a very poor $2,950 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are tilting negative: 44% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Admission should finish with $20 million total domestic.

Expanding to 1,104 theaters Friday (from 3 last week), Spring Breakers from newcomer A24 grossed $2.1 million Friday and a not-so-hot $1.8 million Saturday and is now headed for a weak $5.0 million opening weekend (well below the $8.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging mediocre $4,500 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are positive (downright giddy compared to the other openers this weekend): 70% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Spring Breakers should finish with $20 million total domestic.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $130 million total Friday-Sunday, up about from the $128 million estimate yesterday (mainly thanks to nice Saturday upticks for The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen).  But the weekend is still down 9% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 36% from the same weekend last year, which was boosted by The Hunger Games.

Check back later for the International Box Office report.