March 11, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , ,

>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a decent $123 million for the weekend, up 4% from last year’s weekend and up 10% from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  Disney is claiming John Carter will finish the weekend with $30.6 million.  Let’s all play pretend and give Disney the pleasure of 24 hours of thinking they crossed the $30 million threshold for the opening weekend.  This seems like a classic case of “rounding up” on Sunday morning to make an opening number seem a little better, but it doesn’t change the fact that John Carter is going to be a catastrophe financially: maybe $75 million domestic and $125 million overseas for $200 million worldwide.  Less the theater owners’ portion and adding in ancillary revenues like home video, video on demand, TV rights and so on, the studio might keep around $200 million versus a massive $400+ million expenditure on production and marketing. 

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: John Carter ($75 million), Silent House ($13 million) and A Thousand Words ($11 million). 

The second week movies:  Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax ($220 million, adjusted down slightly) and Project X ($67 million, steady).

The third week movies:  Act of Valor ($73 million, adjusted back down slightly), Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds ($35 million, adjusted down slightly), Wanderlust ($20 million, down slightly) and Gone ($12 million, steady).    

March 9-11                          Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Lorax                 (Uni)     $39.1   -44%      $220-
John Carter               (Dis)     $30.6             $ 75
Project X                  (WB)     $11.6   -45%      $ 67
Silent House        (Open Road)     $ 7.0             $ 13
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $ 7.0   -48%      $ 73-
A Thousand Words          (Par)     $ 6.4             $ 11
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 4.9   -33%      $130
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 4.0   -33%      $129
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 3.7   -33%      $ 53
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 3.7   -44%      $102 
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 3.0   -57%      $ 35-
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 2.3   -36%      $ 50

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $123  John Carter $31, Silent House $7, 1000 Words $6

2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She’s Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14

2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
Avg   $112

Next Weekend            
Opening wide next weekend are 21 Jump Street from Sony starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum.  This film will be compared to Limitless ($18.9 million opening weekend), The Lincoln Lawyer ($13.2 million) and Paul ($13.0 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.