May 29, 2011

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 27-29: Hangover 2 and Panda 2 Slightly Higher for the Weekend

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Weekend Studio Estimates came in slightly higher than yesterday’s first look for Hangover Part II and Kung Fu Panda 2.  Weekend is up almost 50% over last year. 

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Hangover Part II Tides should finish its domestic run with $296 million.  Kung Fu Panda 2 now looking like $175 million domestic.  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides now looking like a $239 million final, while Bridesmaids has been upgraded to $134 million (with some more upside possible).  

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Hangover Part II opened with $23,923 per theater at 3,615 theaters.  That’s $86.5 million for Friday-Sunday and $118 million for Thursday-Sunday.  Kung Fu Panda 2 should open with $12,229 per theater at 3,925 locations — $48 million for Friday-Sunday and $54 million for Thursday-Sunday.  Impressively, Midnight in Paris made it into the top 10 with $1.9 million — $33,090 per theater at an expanded 58 theaters.

May 27-29, 2011                     Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
The Hangover Part II       (WB)     $86.5             $296
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)     $48.0             $175
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)     $39.3   -56%      $239
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $16.4   -21%      $134
Thor                      (Par)     $ 9.4   -39%      $186
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $ 6.6   -38%      $211
Jumping the Broom        (Sony)     $ 1.9   -49%      $ 38
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 1.9  +220%       n/a
Something Borrowed         (WB)     $ 1.8   -48%      $ 38
Rio                       (Fox)     $ 1.8   -62%      $144
Priest                   (Sony)     $ 1.7   -64%      $ 27
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $ 1.1   -51%      $ 58

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an impressive $216 million total, up 49% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #21
2011  $216  (
+44% vs 2007-10 average; +49% vs 2010) 

Avg   $150 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $145  Sex & City 2 $31, Prince of Persia $30

2009  $161  Up $68, Drag Me to Hell $16
2008  $164  Sex & City $57, The Strangers $21
2007  $129  Knocked Up $31, Mr Brooks $10

Next Weekend

Opening next week is X-Men: First Class from Fox.  This movie will be compared against a quartet of fairly soft openers: Get Him to the Greek ($17.6 million opening), Killers ($15.8 million), Marmaduke ($11.6 million) and Splice ($7.4 million).  Next weekend is yet another good opportunity for 2011 to make up more lost ground.

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the traditional weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release, as well as the final weekend numbers through Memorial Day. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.