June 1, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates MAY 30-JUNE 1

More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , ,

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #22 of 2014 now looks like $161 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 18% above the norm for this weekend now matching the same weekend last year.  

Opening at 3,948 theaters, Maleficent from Disney grossed $24.2 million late Thursday/Friday and $25.6 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for a $70.0 million opening three-day weekend (still well above our $62 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $17,700 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (49% positive overall and a similar 50% positive with top critics). Maleficent is headed for $194 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,158 theaters, A Million Ways to Die in the West from Universal grossed $6.1 million Friday and $6.3 million Saturday, putting the film on track for $17.1 million opening weekend (better than it looked yesterday but still below our $28 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very mediocre three-day average of $5,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (34% positive overall and 39% positive with top critics). A Million Ways to Die in the West is headed for $58 million total domestic.

Expanding to 624 theaters, Chef from Open Road Films grossed $500,000 Friday and $890,000 Saturday, putting it on track for a $2.0 weekend (matching our $2.0 million forecast).  Through Sunday the film should total $6.9 million, headed for a $22 million domestic total.

X-Men: Days of Future Past is headed for $32.6 million in its second weekend (down 64% from last weekend and below our $38.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for X-Men: DFP has been re-adjusted to $239 million.    Godzilla continues to decline at a sharp rate (-60%) and is headed for a $12.2 million weekend, below our $13.2 million forecast.  Revised domestic total for Godzilla: $206 million.

Weekend 22: May 30-June 1, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Maleficent Dis [62.0] 71.0 70.0 24.2–25.6 194
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [38.5] 31.5 32.6 9.4–13.8 239
A Million Ways to Die in the West Uni [28.0] 16.2 17.1 6.1–6.3 58
Godzilla WB [13.2] 11.3 12.2 3.3–5.2 206
Blended WB [7.1] 8.0 8.4 2.4–3.5 48
Neighbors Uni [7.2] 7.5 7.7 2.5–3.4 154
Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony [3.7] 3.8 3.8 1.0–1.7 204
Million Dollar Arm Dis [4.1] 3.8 3.7 1.0–1.6 40
Chef Open [2.0] 1.9 2.0 .50–.89 22
The Other Woman Fox [2.1] 1.4 1.4 .44–.61 88

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $161 million total Friday-Sunday, up 18% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but even with the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 22 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $161 Maleficent $70.0, A Million Ways to Die in the West $17.1
2013 $161 Now You See Me $29.3, After Earth $27.5
2012 $135 Snow White and the Huntsman $56.2
2011 $154 X-Men: First Class $55.1
2010 $122 Get Him to the Greek $17.6, Killers $15.8, Marmaduke $11.6, Splice $7.4
Avg 2010-13 $137

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.