Weekend Studio Estimates NOV 29-DEC 1

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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #48 of 2013 looks like $195 million for the top 12 films from Friday-Sunday — 3% below last year’s Thanksgiving weekend but 11% above the four-year average for Thanksgiving weekend.  The Hunger Games: Catching Fire is on pace to score $74.5 million this weekend, and we have revised its total domestic to $475 million (which would be #1 for 2013, ahead of Iron Man 3’s $409 million).  

Opening at 3,742 theaters Wednesday, Frozen 3D from Disney grossed $15.2 million Wednesday, $11.1 million Thanksgiving, $26.9 million Friday and $25.2 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $66.7 million opening weekend (way above the $45.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good three-day average of $17,800 per theater for the weekend (over three times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite positive (84% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 86% positive with top critics). Frozen is headed for $255 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,572 theaters Wednesday, Homefront from Open Road Films grossed a soft $1.4 million Wednesday and Thanksgiving, $2.6 million Friday and $2.7 million Saturday, now on track for a $6.9 million opening three-day weekend (below the $7.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a dreadful three-day average of $2,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (35% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a bad 19% positive with top critics). Homefront is headed for $22 million total domestic.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Expanding to 1,234 theaters Wednesday, The Book Thief from Fox grossed $1.9 million Friday and Saturday and is on track for a $4.9 million opening weekend (above the very bearish $3.2 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mixed to weak (48% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 43% positive with top critics). The Book Thief is headed for $20 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,516 theaters Wednesday, Black Nativity from Fox Searchlight grossed $1.6 million Friday and $1.5 million Saturday and is still on track for a $3.9 million opening weekend (nowhere near the rosy $9.1 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a dreadful three-day average of $2,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mixed (54% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 52% positive with top critics). Black Nativity is headed for $16 million total domestic.

Expanding to 835 theaters Wednesday, Philomena from Weinstein grossed $1.3 million Friday and $1.4 million Saturday and is now on track for a $3.8 million opening weekend (slightly above the $3.2 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a barely okay three-day average of $4,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is excellent (93% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 95% positive with top critics). Philomena is headed for $23 million total domestic.

Opening at 583 theaters Wednesday, Oldboy from FilmDistrict and director Spike Lee is on track for a $0.85 million opening weekend (below the $2.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a horrifying three-day average of $1,450 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (43% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 43% positive with top critics). Oldboy is headed for maybe $2.5 million total domestic.

Catching Fire Durability

How strong is Catching Fire‘s second week? Not unprecedented but highly unusual.  The chart below looks at the 13 films over the last three years that opened with over $100 million through the first weekend.  (Some films are three-day Friday-Sunday totals in the first column of the chart; others also include an early Thursday or even Wednesday early release).  The second column looks at the first full week of release (the first Monday through the second Sunday).  In almost all cases, the films gross well under $100 million in the all important second week (dropping about 40% from the first few days) when bad word of mouth can put a significant drag on business.  Two films (Iron Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2) grossed just over $100 million, while Dark Knight Rises ($126 million) and Marvel’s The Avengers ($166 million) pulled well above $100 million in the first full week and came close to matching the opening few days (falling only 20-22% from the first period to the next).  Catching Fire is looking like it will drop only 13% over the same periods.  While it is certainly helped by its release schedule (with the long Thanksgiving holiday framing it first full week and second weekend), it is taking full advantage of the calendar and defying the usual gravity of the box office.