November 4, 2012


The weekend looks like a decent $125 million for the top 12 films, a little better than it looked yesterday (now slightly beating the multi-year average for this weekend).  Each of the three openers had good Saturday grosses and are exceeding the predictions in Wednesday’s  ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Wreck-It Ralph ($171 million), Flight ($78 million) and The Man with the Iron Fists ($22 million).

Second week films:  Cloud Atlas ($32 million, virtually the same as last week’s $31 million initial estimate), Silent Hill: Revelation 3D ($14 million, up a bit from $11 million last week), Fun Size ($10 million, up a bit from $9 million last week) and Chasing Mavericks ($5 million, equal to last week’s initial estimate).

Third week films:  Paranormal Activity 4 ($53 million, similar to $54 million last week and down from the $65 million initial estimate) and Alex Cross ($27 million, identical to last week and nearly the same as $28 million the first week).

Fourth week films:  Argo ($103 million, up from $97 million last week, $93 million the second week and up sharply from $68 million the first week), Sinister ($51 million, identical to last week and the first week and very similar to $52 million the second week), and Here Comes the Boom ($42 million, very close to $43 million last week and $44 million the second week and up somewhat from $35 million the first week).

Weekend 44: Nov 2-4, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Wreck-It Ralph Disney 49.1 171
Flight Par 25.0 78
Argo WB -15% 10.2 103
Man with the Iron Fists Uni 8.22 22
Taken 2 Fox -22% 6.00 139
Cloud Atlas WB -45% 5.25 32
Hotel Transylvania Sony/ Col -52% 4.50 150
Paranormal Activity 4 Par -49% 4.30 53
Here Comes the Boom Sony/Col -31% 3.60 42
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Open Road -59% 3.30 14
Pitch Perfect Uni -23% 3.04 67
Fun Size Par -44% 2.28 10


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a respectable $125 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the average comparable weekend the last four years but up 20% from the same weekend last year (which suffered from not having a big animated family film as this weekend has had on even-numbered years recently).

($ millions)
WEEKEND #44 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $125 Wreck-It Ralph $49, Flight $25, Man Iron Fists $8
2011 $104 Tower Heist $24, A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas $13
2010 $143 Megamind $46, Due Date $33, For Colored Girls $19
2009 $107 A Christmas Carol $30, Men Stare Goats $13, Fourth Kind $12
2008 $128 Madagascar 2 $63, Role Models $19, Soul Men $5
Avg 2008-11 $120

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend:  Skyfall from Sony/Columbia (the 178th James Bond film).  In very limited release (about a dozen theaters), Lincoln from Disney (historical biography and drama from Steven Spielberg and starring Daniel Day-Lewis).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Immortals ($32.2 million opening weekend), Jack and Jill ($25.0 million) and J. Edgar ($11.2 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.