November 24, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates NOVEMBER 22-24

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #47 of 2013 now looks like $222 million for the top 12 films — up from yesterday’s estimate thanks to a stronger than expected Saturday for Hunger Games: Catching Fire.  Now the overall weekend volume virtually matches the average for recent weekends before Thanksgiving.

Opening at 4,163 theaters Friday, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $70.5 million Friday and $52.9 million Saturday, now on track for a $161.1 million opening weekend (now much closer to the $167.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast and definitely on track to set the new November opening weekend record, beating the $142.8 million opening for Twilight Saga: New Moon in November 2009). The film is pacing toward a very good three-day average of $38,700 per theater for the weekend (almost eight times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite positive (89% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and the same 89% positive with top critics). Hunger Games: Catching Fire is headed for a revised $400 million total domestic, very close to the $408.0 million domestic total for The Hunger Games which opened with $152.5 million March 23-25, 2012.

Opening at 3,036 theaters Friday, Delivery Man from Disney grossed $2.8 million Friday and $3.4 million Saturday, now on track for an $8.2 million opening weekend (below the $12.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a dreadful three-day average of $2,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (37% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 35% positive with top critics). Delivery Man is still headed for $21 million total domestic.

Among the major holdovers, Thor: The Dark World (down 61% in its third weekend) has been downgraded somewhat to $205 million total domestic, while Best Man Holiday (down 58% in its second weekend) has been downgraded slightly to $80 million total domestic. 

On the specialty circuit, Philomena from Weinstein is headed for a strong $33,400 per theater opening weekend at 4 theaters.  Gori Tere Pyaar Mein from Reliance Big Entertainment is on track for a flat-line $1,700 per theater opening weekend at 112 theaters.  Frozen from Disney is sneaking a week early with a huge estimated $237,600 at 1 theater (the El Capitan in Hollywood).

Weekend 47: November 22-24, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Hunger Games: Catching Fire LG/Sum [167.0] 150.4 161.1 70.5–52.9 400
Thor: The Dark World Dis [16.6] 14.3 14.1 4.0–6.4 205
Best Man Holiday Uni [14.8] 12.6 12.5 3.8–5.7 80
Delivery Man Dis [12.0] 8.1 8.2 2.8–3.4 21
Free Birds Rel [4.8] 5.1 5.3 1.1–2.6 58
Last Vegas CBS [5.3] 4.4 4.4 1.3–1.9 65
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par [3.7] 3.5 3.5 1.1–1.5 106
Gravity WB [3.7] 3.1 3.3 .90–1.5 261
12 Years a Slave Fox S [3.6] 2.8 2.8 .80–1.3 41
Dallas Buyers Club Foc/Uni [—] 2.7 2.8 .78–1.2 n/a
Ender’s Game LG/Sum [2.7] 2.1 2.2 .60–.94 61

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $222 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($211 million) and now only down 1% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend before Thanksgiving and down 8% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 47 (2013) versus Weekend 46 prior years ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $222 Hunger Games: Catching Fire $161.1, Delivery Man $8.2
2012 $242 Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part 2 $141.1, Lincoln $21.0
2011 $215 Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part 1 $138.1, Happy Feet Two $21.2
2010 $186 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125.0, Next Three Days $6.5
2009 $250 Twilight Saga: New Moon $142.8, Blind Side $34.1, Planet 51 $12.3
Avg 2009-12 $223

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.