September 15, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates SEPTEMBER 13-15

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #37 of 2013 now looks like a solid $90 million for the top 12 films, down from yesterday’s initial outlook but still up 9% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,049 theaters Friday, Insidious Chapter 2 from FilmDistrict grossed $20.1 million Friday and $13.5 million Saturday, now on track for a $41.1 million opening weekend (above the $32.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $13,500 per theater for the weekend (barely above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (37% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a scary 22% with top critics). Insidious Chapter 2 is headed for $88 million total domestic, well above the $54.0 million domestic total for Insidious (which opened to $13.3 million April 1-3, 2011).

Opening at 3,091 theaters Friday, The Family from Relativity grossed $5.4 million both Friday and Saturday, now pacing toward a $14.5 million opening weekend (also above our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is low (32% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 29% with top critics). The Family is now headed for $40 million total domestic.

The final domestic gross estimates for Riddick has stabilized at $44 million, while Instructions Not Included is back on track for $39 million domestic. Also, the final domestic estimates for We’re the Millers and Lee Daniels’ The Butler have finally started to stabilize (after weeks of upgrades). We’re the Millers is headed for $149 million domestic, and The Butler is headed for $115 milion.

Weekend 37: September 13-15, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri-Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [32.5] 42.3 41.1 20.1–13.5 88
The Family Rel [10.5] 15.5 14.5 5.4–5.4 40
Riddick Uni [8.3] 7.4 7.0 2.2–2.8 44
Lee Daniels’ The Butler Weins [5.5] 5.9 5.6 1.7–2.4 115
We’re the Millers WB [5.1] 5.8 5.4 1.7–2.4 149
Instructions Not Included LG/Sum [6.0] 6.9 4.3 1.4–1.4 39
Planes Dis [2.7] 3.3 3.1 .71–1.4 89
One Direction: This Is Us Sony [2.3] 2.9 2.4 .83–1.0 28
Elysium Sony [1.8] 2.2 2.1 .63–.92 94
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Fox [—] 2.1 1.8 .45–.87 67
Blue Jasmine Sony [1.7] 1.6 1.8 .46–n/a 36
The World’s End Uni/Foc [—] 1.4 1.3 .41–n/a 28

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $90 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 31% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 37 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $90 Insidious Chapter 2 $41.1, The Family $14.5
2012 $69 Resident Evil: Retribution $21.1, Finding Nemo 3D $16.7, Last Ounce of Courage $1.6
2011 $86 Lion King 3D $30.2, Drive $11.3, Straw Dogs $5.1, I Don’t Know How She Does It $4.4
2010 $87 The Town $23.8, Easy A $17.7, Devil $12.3, Alpha and Omega $9.1
2009 $87 Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $30.3, The Informant! $10.5, Love Happens $8.1, Jennifer’s Body $6.9
Avg 2009-12 $82

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.