July 23, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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A very solid week at the box office pushed total domestic revenues over $6 billion for the year to date, punctuated by strong opening for The Dark Knight Rises amid the real-life carnage in a Colorado movie theater.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between July 16 and July 22 grossed a solid $303 million, up 5% from the same week in 2011 and up 13% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Year to date (now over $6 billion for wide-release films) is running 8% ahead of 2011 .  Similarly, the year-to-date total is 7% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the similar period.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through July 22, 2012 ($ millions)
2011 4-year Average 2012 vs 2011 vs 4yr Avg
Week #29 $289 $268 $303 +5% +13%
Year to Date $5,588 $5,653 $6,057 +8% +7%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

The official opening weekend number for The Dark Knight Rises is $160,887,295.  By day: Friday ($75.7 million), Saturday ($44.9 million) and Sunday ($40.2 million).  In contrast, The Dark Knight in 2008 opened with $158,411,483.  By day, Rises had the stronger Friday, but the rest of the weekend was higher for The Dark Knight: Friday ($67.2 million), Saturday ($47.6 million) and Sunday ($43.6 million).  The comparisons of weekend actuals to studio estimates will return next weekend, when the studios return to releasing studio estimates Sunday mornings (after a tasteful hiatus to honor the victims of the Aurora massacre.  


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Dark Knight Rises 492 99
Amazing Spider-Man 286 96
Brave 232 95
Ted 221 94
Ice Age: Continental Drift 137 87
Magic Mike 117 83
TP’s Medea’s Witness Protection 65 65
Savages 53 58
Moonrise Kingdom 46 53
Rock of Ages 39 46
That’s My Boy 37 44
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 35 42
Katy Perry: Part of Me 29 32
To Rome with Love 16 15
People Like Us 14 11


Weekend Predictions for the July 27-29 weekend should be posted Wednesday. This weekend features the openings of the not-so-eagerly-awaited The Watch and Step Up Revolution.

Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.