July 30, 2012


A fairly forgettable week at the box office — two new films open to little business and Dark Knight Rises continues to lead the pack, although at a significantly slower pace than its predecessor The Dark Knight.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between July 23 and July 29 grossed an unspectacular $232 million, close to the four-year average for the comparable week (up 2%) but down 11% from the same week in 2011 (when the final Harry Potter was still going strong and Cowboys & Aliens and The Smurfs opened with over $35 million). Year to date (now almost $6.3 billion for wide-release films) is still running 8% ahead of 2011 .  Similarly, the year-to-date total is 7% ahead of the multi-year average for the similar period.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through July 29, 2012 ($ millions)
2011 4-year Average 2012 vs 2011 vs 4yr Avg
Week #30 $261 $228 $232 -11% +2%
Year to Date $5,849 $5,881 $6,289 +8% +7%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

The official second weekend number for The Dark Knight Rises is $62,101,451, down 3% from the studio estimate Sunday morning.  Sunday turned out to be worse than Warner Brothers estimated (down 17% or $4.0 million from the same day for Dark Knight), not as bad as Friday’s comparison (down 24% or $5.5 million) but a little worse than Saturday (down 13% or $3.6 million).  

The two openers this past weekend also came in below their studio estimates, although the difference was smaller than Batman’s.  The Watch opened with $12,750,297, down 2% from the studio estimate, while Step Up Revolution opened with $11,731,708 officially, down a mere 0.6% from Summit’s estimate Sunday morning.  


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Dark Knight Rises 434 99
Amazing Spider-Man 275 96
Brave 232 95
Ted 219 94
Ice Age: Continental Drift 150 89
Magic Mike 116 83
TP’s Medea’s Witness Protection 65 65
Savages 51 56
Moonrise Kingdom 45 52
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 37 44
The Watch 31 35
Step Up Revolution 31 35
Katy Perry: Part of Me 27 30
To Rome with Love 16 16
People Like Us 13 10


Weekend Predictions for the August 3-5 weekend should be posted Wednesday. This weekend features the openings of Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days.

Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.