August 6, 2012


Another relatively slow week at the North American box office.  Dark Knight Rises keeps chugging along (still lagging behind the domestic pace of 2008’s Dark Knight but still on track for close to $450 million), but two new films opened weakly and no other holdovers are doing much business.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between July 30 and August 5 grossed a pretty soft $186 million, down 13% from the four-year average for the comparable week and down 25% from the same week in 2011 (when Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened to a robust $54.8 million in its first weekend). Year to date (now almost $6.5 billion for wide-release films) is now running 6% ahead of past years at this point (down from +8% through last week).

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through August 5, 2012 ($ millions)
2011 4-year Average 2012 vs 2011 vs 4yr Avg
Week #31 $250 $215 $186 -25% -13%
Year to Date $6,099 $6,096 $6,475 +6% +6%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

The major films this weekend (the top three with weekends greater than $10 million) came in with actual weekend grosses within 2% of the studio estimates.  The official third weekend number for The Dark Knight Rises ended up at $35,737,330 officially, down 1.9% from the studio estimate Sunday morning.    

Total Recall opened with $25,577,758, down 1.6% from the Sony estimate Sunday morning, while Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days opened with $14,623,599 officially, down a scant 0.5% from Fox’s estimate.  


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Dark Knight Rises 446 99
Amazing Spider-Man 272 96
Ted 226 94
Ice Age: Continental Drift 156 89
Magic Mike 116 83
TP’s Medea’s Witness Protection 66 66
Total Recall 65 65
Savages 50 55
Moonrise Kingdom 46 53
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 41 48
The Watch 38 45
Step Up Revolution 37 43
Katy Perry: Part of Me 25 28
To Rome with Love 17 16
People Like Us 13 10


Weekend Predictions for the August 10-12 weekend should be posted Wednesday. This weekend features the openings of The Bourne Legacy, The Campaign and Hope Springs.

Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.