November 5, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 29 and November 4 grossed a solid $163 million, up 6% from the four-year average for the week and up 18% from the same week last year.   

The past six weeks are now 9% above the four-year average box office average and a sizable 20% above the same six-week period last year.  

Year to date box office (now almost $8.4 billion for wide-release films) continues to run 5% above both the average for the same period the last four years and last year at this time.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through November 4, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #44 $138 $154 $163 +18% +6%
Past Six Weeks $758 $830 $906 +20% +9%
Year to Date $7,936 $7,949 $8,357 +5% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Very accurate studio estimates Sunday morning for the two big openers, but Universal stretched on Man with the Iron Fists a bit to say it would end up above $8 million for the weekend.  That was not meant to be.

Wreck-It Ralph came in officially at $49,038,712 for its opening weekend, within an amazing 0.1% of the Disney estimate Sunday.  

Flight came in at $24,900,566 in its opening weekend, down only 0.4% from the Sunday estimate.

Man with the Iron Fists opened officially with $7,910,980, down a hefty 3.7% from the Universal estimate.



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Wreck-It Ralph 171 91
Hotel Transylvania 150 89
Taken 2 139 87
Argo 103 80
Flight 78 68
Looper 68 64
Pitch Perfect 67 63
Paranormal Activity 4 53 53
Sinister 51 51
Here Comes the Boom 43 47
Frankenweenie 36 37
Cloud Atlas 32 32
Alex Cross 24 22
Man with the Iron Fists 21 16
Seven Psychopaths 18 13
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D 14 9
Fun Size 10 4
Chasing Mavericks 5 1


Weekend Predictions for November 9-11 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the wide opening of Skyfall (from Sony).  Lincoln also opens but at very few theaters initially.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.