Men in Black 3 now looks like a $55.0 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (up from yesterday’s early estimate and now exactly hitting our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowBuzzDaily Weekend Predictions). The other new film this weekend, Chernobyl Diaries, is now even lower than projected yesterday: $8.0 million Friday-Sunday.
The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $147 million for the weekend, down 32% from this weekend last year.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Men in Black 3 ($155 million), Chernobyl Diaries ($14 million). Expanding to enough theaters to fit our projection model: Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($39 million).
Second week films: Battleship ($67 million), The Dictator ($67 million, adjusted up somewhat from last week’s projection) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($38 million, adjusted up significantly from last week).
Third week film: Dark Shadows ($79 million, up slightly from last week’s estimate).
Fourth week films: Marvel’s The Avengers ($611 million, adjusted up slightly from last week’s estimate).
| May 25-27 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Men in Black 3 | Par | 55.0 | 155 | ||
| Marvel’s The Avengers | Dis | -33% | 37.0 | 611 | |
| Battleship | Uni | -58% | 10.8 | 67 | |
| The Dictator | Par | -45% | 9.6 | 67 | |
| Chernobyl Diaries | WB | 8.0 | 14 | ||
| Dark Shadows | WB | -40% | 7.5 | 79 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | -32% | 7.2 | 38 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | Fox | +97% | 6.4 | 39 | |
| The Hunger Games | LG | -7% | 2.7 | 400 | |
| Think Like a Man | LG | -47% | 1.4 | 94 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $147 million total Friday-Sunday, down 32% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 14% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #21 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $147 | Men in Black 3 $55, Chernobyl Diaries $8 | |
| 2011 | $216 | Hangover Part II $86, Kung Fu Panda $48 | |
| 2010 | $145 | Sex and the City 2 $31, Prince of Persia $30 | |
| 2009 | $161 | Up $68, Drag Me to Hell $16 | |
| 2008 | $164 | Sex and the City $57, The Strangers $21 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $172 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend is Snow White and the Huntsman from Universal (starring Charlize Theron and Chris Hemsworth). This film will be compared to the following opener from the same weekend last year: X-Men: First Class ($55.1 million opening weekend).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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