May 13, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Marvel’s The Avengers continues to tear up the record books.  The studio is projecting the second weekend will come in at $103.2 million (now almost exactly hitting the $104 million in our ShowBuzzDaily Weekend Predictions) and leaving the old second-weekend record in the dust ($75.6 million for Avatar in December 2009).  Avengers now also holds the record for largest ten-day gross (see table below).  We have revised our estimate for Final Domestic Gross again, and will update the international picture for The Avengers and all other films in release later today.   

The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $161 million for the weekend, up 25% from last year’s weekend and from the weekend’s average for the past four years.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Dark Shadows ($78 million).

Second week films:  Marvel’s The Avengers ($610 million, adjusted up sharply from last week’s initial estimate).

Third week films:  The Pirates! Band of Misfits ($31 million, adjusted down slightly from last week’s estimate), The Five-Year Engagement ($31 million, even with last week), Safe ($16 million, steady versus last week) and The Raven ($14 million, steady versus last week).

Fourth week films:  Think Like a Man ($96 million, even with last week’s estimate), The Lucky One ($60 million, adjusted up slightly) and Chimpanzee ($29 million, steady versus last week).

May 11-13 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -50% 103.2 610
Dark Shadows WB 28.5 78
Think Like a Man LG -22% 6.3 96
The Hunger Games LG -21% 4.4 405
The Lucky One WB -24% 4.1 60
Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony -42% 3.2 31
Five-Year Engagement Uni -38% 3.1 31
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox +260% 2.6 n/a
Safe LG -52% 1.3 16
The Raven Rel -51% 1.3 14
Chimpanzee Dis -35% 1.6 29
The Three Stooges Fox -45% 1.0 43

The Avengers has grossed an estimated $373.2 million through today, beating the old record (The Dark Knight) by $60 million.      


ALL-TIME GROSS: FIRST 10 DAYS ($ millions)
First 10 Days Final Domestic Gross
Marvel’s The Avengers 373.2 610 (est.)
The Dark Knight 313.8 533.3
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 273.5 381.1
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 269.0 402.1
Pirates Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest 258.4 423.3
The Hunger Games 248.4 405 (est.)
Spider-Man 3 240.2 336.5


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $161 million total Friday-Sunday, now up 25%   from both the same calendar weekend last year and the average for this weekend the past four years.   

WEEKEND #19 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $161 Dark Shadows $29
2011 $129 Bridesmaids $26, Priest $15
2010 $131 Robin Hood $36, Letters to Juliet $13, Just Wright $8
2009 $131 Angels & Demons $46
2008 $126 Chronicles of Narnia $55
Avg 2008-11 $129

Next Weekend             

Opening wide next weekend are Battleship from Universal (starring Taylor Kitsch and Rihanna), The Dictator from Paramount (opening Wednesday and starring Sacha Baron Cohen) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting from Lionsgate (romantic comedy starring Cameron Diaz and Jennifer Lopez).  These films will be compared to the following opener from the same weekend last year:  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ($90.2 million opening weekend). 


Again, check back later today for our update on international grosses.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.