Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #37 of 2015 looks like $82 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, slightly above the norm for the first weekend after Labor Day (see track below).
Opening at 2,221 theaters Friday, The Perfect Guy from Sony is on track for a $26.5 million opening three-day weekend (way above our $14.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a terrific $11,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (25% positive overall in early reviews). The Perfect Guy is headed for $73 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,069 theaters Friday, The Visit from Universal is on track for a $22.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $16.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a somewhat above average $7,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is fairly positive (62% positive overall and 66% positive with top critics). The Visit is headed for $62 million total domestic.
Opening at 838 theaters Friday, 90 Minutes from Heaven from Samuel Goldwyn is on track for a $2.1 million opening three-day weekend (below our $3.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is soft (20% positive overall in early reviews). 90 Minutes from Heaven is headed for a quick exit from theaters and $3 million total domestic.
| Weekend 37: September 11-13, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Perfect Guy | Sony | [14.5] | 26.5 | 9.95 | 73 | |
| The Visit | Uni | [16.5] | 22.5 | 9.22 | 62 | |
| War Room | Sony | [5.8] | 7.7 | 2.16 | 61 | |
| A Walk in the Woods | BG | [5.1] | 5.1 | 1.46 | 33 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [4.3] | 4.0 | 1.09 | 204 | |
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [4.6] | 3.9 | 1.20 | 169 | |
| No Escape | Weins | [2.9] | 2.7 | .80 | 32 | |
| Transporter Refueled | Eur | [3.0] | 2.6 | .79 | 15 | |
| 90 Minutes from Heaven | Goldwyn | [3.0] | 2.1 | .73 | 3 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [—] | 1.9 | .52 | 49 | |
| Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos | [2.3] | 1.7 | n/a | 10 | ||
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
War Room is headed for $7.7 million this weekend (down -19% from last weekend and above our $5.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $61 million.
A Walk in the Woods is headed for $5.1 million this weekend (down -38% from last weekend and matching our $5.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $33 million.
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $4.0 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and near our $4.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $204 million.
Straight Outta Compton is headed for $3.9 million this weekend (down -55% from last weekend and slightly below our $4.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $169 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $82 million total Friday-Sunday, up +2% from the average for the comparable weekend and up +6% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 37 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $82 | Perfect Guy $26.5, The Visit $22.5, 90 Minutes in Heaven $2.1 | |
| 2014 | $78 | No Good Deed $24.3, Dolphin Tale 2 $15.9, The Drop $4.1 | |
| 2013 | $89 | Insidious Chapter 2 $40.3, The Family $14.0 | |
| 2012 | $69 | Resident Evil: Retribution $21.1, Finding Nemo 3D $16.7 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $81 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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