OPENINGS: WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Ten Cent/DC/Warners) is a big win with $100.5M in the US, and for the DC franchise, the 93% at Rotten Tomatoes may be almost as important a number. It’s also worth noting that unusually, Warners has conservatively estimated Sunday with a 28% drop (by comparison, Guardians Vol 2, arguably with less impressive word of mouth since Wonder Woman had a better Saturday hold, went down 24% on its first Sunday). So the final number might be higher. As is usually the case with a new US franchise, the international result was less stellar than some recent sequels, but still strong at $122.5M in 55 territories, with several major areas still to open. In one swoop, Wonder Woman has established a new DC sub-franchise, increased want-to-see for the mega-sequel Justice League, established that DC/Warners can produce audience and critical satisfaction as well as ticket sales–and that’s leaving aside its sociopolitical significance.
CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS: THE FIRST EPIC MOVIE (DreamWorks Animation/20th) is likely to be its last with a $23.5M US opening (it’s barely opened overseas), even though that’s on a much lower production budget than the typical DreamWorks Animation production. Even with total production/marketing costs at $150M or so, this won’t be much more than a breakeven proposition, and there’s no real incentive to push forward because the Captain is DWA’s final release through 20th before it shifts its product to Universal.
HOLDOVERS: PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES (Disney) didn’t hold well anywhere. In the US, it crashed by 66% to $21.6M, and isn’t likely to get beyond $160M, 34% behind On Stranger Tides. The overseas numbers are much bigger, but similarly down, with a 65% drop to $73.8M for a running total of $386.6M. The one ace up Dead Men‘s sleeve is Japan, which has been a huge market for the franchise and which doesn’t open until July. Even so, it’s hard to see the 5th Pirates breaking past $750M worldwide, which would be down 30% from the last installment. That’s still profitable, even on $400M in costs and with heavy amounts due to Johnny Depp and Jerry Bruckheimer, but a Pirates 6 would be a much bigger risk.
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2 (Marvel/Disney) is heading toward the end of its run, down 53% to $9.3M in the US, where it may top out at $375M, and at $461.1M overseas after a $4.4M weekend. Both those numbers are ahead of the first Guardians, although an overall 10% hike may have been less than Disney had hoped.
BAYWATCH (Huahua/Shanghai/Skydance/Paramount) fell 54% to $8.5M in the US, probably doomed to run out of beach at $60M. Things were a bit better overseas, where it launched in 31 markets with $23.8M, although breakeven is probably the best that can be hoped with $175M in production/marketing costs and a likely big back-end deal for Dwayne Johnson.
ALIEN: COVENANT (TSG/20th) is a franchise out of steam. In the US, it lost 62% to $4M and will end up around $75M. Overseas, it’s at $106.6M after a $3.7M weekend. Even though China and Japan are still to open, this one is lost in space.
EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING (Warners) is trying to hold on as a sleeper of the season, but after a 44% drop to $3.3M, with a likely $35M total, even with relatively tiny costs by Warners standards, it would take a strong showing overseas (where it hasn’t yet journeyed) just to break even.
LIMITED RELEASE: There wasn’t much to get excited about among the indies. 3 IDIOTAS (Pantelion) was the latest title aimed at the Latino audience, but it didn’t find its mark with a $1700 per-theatre average in a 349-theatre opening. CHURCHILL (Cohen) fared about as well, averaging $2K at 215. PARIS CAN WAIT (Sony Classics) continued its steady expansion with a $3600 average at 151. THE WEDDING PLAN (Roadside) widened to 123 with a $1700 average. On a much smaller scale, BAND AID (IFC) opened at 3 with a $10.5K average, DEAN (CBS) started at 15 and averaged $4K, and PAST LIFE (Goldwyn) had a $4100 average at 4.
NEXT WEEKEND: THE MUMMY (Universal) is the big arrival, intending to kick off the studio’s “Dark Universe” of updated horror movies with a Tom Cruise spectacle. A pair of lower-budget openings will do battle, thriller IT COMES AT NIGHT (A24), and true-life story MEGAN LEAVEY (Bleecker Street). Limited releases include MY COUSIN RACHEL (Fox Searchlight), THE HERO (Orchard) and BEATRIZ AT DINNER (Roadside).
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