Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 6/28/15

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OPENINGS:  TED 2 (MRC/Universal) suffered a 16% Friday-to-Saturday drop, and is currently projected by its studio to have a $33M weekend, down 40% from the $54.4M start for the original Ted 3 years ago.  Overseas, Ted 2 opened to $20.3M in 26 markets.  That leaves much of the world still to come, but a long way before it can touch the $330.6M international total of Ted.  Overall, Ted 2 may well turn a profit, but with at least $200M in production/marketing costs, there won’t be much cash on hand, and Seth MacFarlane may have to be content with his TV mega-millions.  The (relative) failure of Ted 2 is interesting, because it’s not as though audiences have any problem with sequels in general, and may be due to the movie’s less than sprightly premise of Ted’s courtroom battle for personhood, plus some slippage in MacFarlane’s own appeal.

MAX (MGM/Warners) was never expected to sell more than a modest number of tickets (the film was produced by MGM, and Warners contracted to release it), and on that level, its $12.2M opening is fine, although the very small (for a family movie) 3% Saturday bump doesn’t suggest it will stick around for long.

TERMINATOR: GENISYS (Skydance/Paramount) opens in the US on Tuesday night, but it’s already begun in 10 small markets, where it had a $8.3M start.  The studio is claiming a 20-25% higher opening than 2009’s Terminator: Salvation had in those territories, but since that underperformer temporarily killed off the franchise, Genisys will need to do a lot better to justify its enormous costs.

MINIONS (Illumination/Universal) continues to make big overseas money while it waits for its US opening in 2 weeks, earning another $36M in just 10 markets, which puts it at $51.7M at the very start of its release.

HOLDOVERS:  JURASSIC WORLD (Legendary/Universal) appears to have eked out a weekend victory over INSIDE OUT (Pixar/Disney), although the latter had the better weekend-to-weekend hold.  Jurassic fell 49% to $54.2M, putting it ta $500.1M in the US (no one will be surprised if the final number lowers it slightly below that magic number tomorrow).  Jurassic‘s target is the $623.4M US total of The Avengers, the 3rd best ever, although that 49% drop is a bit worse than the 46% Weekend 3 decline for The Avengers.  Inside Out fell only 42% to $52.1M, better than the 49% Weekend 2 drop for Brave and the 45% drop for Monsters University.  Overseas it was no contest, as Jurassi had another gigantic weekend with $82.5M in 66 markets (its global total is $1.24B, already #7 of all time and sure to rise considerably higher).  Inside Out had to settle for $26.4M in 42 markets, which notably don’t include China because that country is in a “blackout” period when only local films are allowed to open.

The other long running titles were in the leaders’ rear-view mirror.  SPY (20th) fell just 31% to $7.8M, giving it a $88.4M US total, plus $6.4M in 46 overseas markets for a robust (for a US comedy) $106.6M internationally.  The much more expensive SAN ANDREAS (Rat Pac Dune/Village Roadshow/New Line/Warners) lost 39% in the US for a $5.3M weekend and $141.9M total, and overseas it earned $10.4M in 68 territories for $297.8M, heading for a tidy if not huge profit.

The 2d weekend of DOPE (Open Road) didn’t benefit from reviews or word of mouth, falling 53% to $2.9M, and it may not even break even on its high Sundance acquisition costs.  LOVE AND MERCY (Lionsgate/Roadside) held nicely in its semi-wide release, down 25% at 724 theatres for a $1.3M weekend and $9.3M to date.

LIMITED RELEASE:  ME AND EARL AND THE DYING GIRL (Fox Searchlight) crept closer to wide release with an expansion to 354 theatres, but is continuing to show little sign of mainstream appeal, averaging $2800.  I’LL SEE YOU IN MY DREAMS (Bleecker Street), which wasn’t even on the summer radar, is doing almost as well, with a $2K average at 290 theatres, and just a 15% weekend decline.  INFINITELY POLAR BEAR (Sony Classics) had an unexciting expansion to 17 with a $4100 average.  THE WOLFPACK (Magnolia) averaged $2200 at 81, and THE OVERNIGHT (Orchard) had a $2900 average at 45.  EDEN (Broad Green), now at 14, didn’t hit a $1K average.  The newcomers did little to liven things up, as BATKID BEGINS (Warners) averaged $5800 at 4, and A LITTLE CHAOS (Focus World) averaged $2200 at 83.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The holiday “weekend” starts on Tuesday night, with the arrival of Terminator: Genisys and MAGIC MIKE XXL (Warners).  Limited releases include the documentary AMY (A24) and JIMMY’S HALL (Sony Classics).