The latest underperforming franchise entry is TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: OUT OF THE SHADOWS (Nickelodeon/Movie Media Group/Alibaba/Paramount).  Preliminary numbers at Deadline have opening day at $11.6M, down 55% from the $25.6M start for the rebooted TMNT 2 years ago.  That suggests a weekend that may not hit $30M, and a US total under $100M.  […]

Weekend #32 of 2014 is looking like $152 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 11%from the norm for this weekend and the second up weekend in a row after six straight down weekends. Opening at over 3,700 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Teenage Mutant […]

  This may be a good time to pause the stories about Disney’s infalliability, and the unstoppable dominance of the Star Wars franchise.  SOLO (Lucasfilm/Disney) is underperforming in a big way, with preliminary numbers at Deadline putting its opening day at $36.5M, extremely frontloaded with $14.1M of that total from Thursday night.  That’s the lowest […]

  OPENINGS:  DEAR EVAN HANSEN (Universal) clunked badly with a $7.5M debut, following on the heels of the underperforming In the Heights and underlining that while musicals can score at the box office, they remain a risky genre.  Even with a relatively low production cost and limited marketing, it’s hard to see any path to […]

Weekend #20 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 13-15, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Money Monster Sony R n/a 9.5 24 14 38 The Darkness High Top PG13 n/a 4.5 11 2 13 […]

  THE MAIN EVENT:  As the roof caved in on BATMAN V SUPERMAN:  DAWN OF JUSTICE (DC/RatPac/Warners), the studio had two last-ditch goals:  to avoid a Weekend 2 result that dropped 70% from last week or dipped below $50M in the US.  Pending tomorrow’s final numbers, it appears to have managed that, with a 68% […]

  OPENINGS:  Word of mouth kicked in on Saturday for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR (Marvel/Disney), which fell a mild 19% from opening day, much better than the 38% drop for Batman v Superman and the 33% for The Avengers: Age Of Ultron (although not quite as good as the 10% for Iron Man 3, 14% for The Avengers […]

>The calendar turns to the second quarter of the year, and the 14th weekend of the year should be another strong one: about $141 million for the top 12 films up 37% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 31% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Three films have a good shot at earning […]