OPENINGS:  A $34.1M US launch for a movie that reportedly carries about $350M in production and marketing costs likely means a nine-figure loss in theatrical release, which traditionally is considered less than desirable.  But the ways of Box Office Magical Thinking are infinite (and the number of pundits willing to parrot such spin similarly […]

Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted now looks like a $60.4 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (down from yesterday’s early estimate but still exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  Prometheus is looking like a $50.0 million weekend (or so 20th Century Fox is fervently wishing and hoping), down from yesterday’s […]

The weekend now looks like $52 million for the top 12 films instead of the $50 million estimate yesterday.  But the basic rank order remains the same.  The Possession remains at #1 and is headed for a final domestic gross of over $50 million now, while Lawless has increased to a $40 million total.  The […]

  OPENINGS:  The weekend’s tallest dwarf was WAR DOGS (RatPac/Warners) with a soft $14.3M start.  The 12% Saturday drop indicates that word of mouth isn’t great, and early international numbers are weak as well, with $6.5M in 31 markets.  War Dogs cost $125M+ in production and worldwide marketing, and it seems likely to add to […]

  OPENINGS:  INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY (Paramount/Lucasfilm/Disney) barely scraped the bottom of weekend expectations with $60M, and that studio estimate assumes an very strong Sunday.  The extremely expensive tentpole–$400M+ in production and worldwide marketing costs–combined an elderly franchise built around an 80-year old star with mediocre reviews following an ill-advised Cannes premiere, […]

  OPENINGS:  THE LOST CITY (Paramount) opened at the high end of expectations at $31M, a particularly solid result these days for a movie that skews both female and older (the latter crowd evident in the 2% Friday-to-Saturday rise).  Lost City faces little challenge in its target demo for the next month, so it could […]

Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #14 of 2013 is looking a little weaker than it appeared yesterday but still ahead of prior years.  The top 12 films are looking like $127 million this weekend, now 10% above the same weekend in recent years.  Two decent openers and two strong returning films dominate the top of […]

  OPENINGS:  TRANSFORMERS ONE (Hasbro/Paramount) underdelivered vs projections by about 20%, and its dim $25M start didn’t even give it the weekend’s #1 ranking at the box office.  Paramount was taking a calculated risk by rebooting the franchise via PG-rated animation, and it doesn’t seem to have worked out.  It faces direct competition next weekend […]