June 10, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES June 8-10 — A Soft Saturday Makes for a Very Front-Loaded Weekend

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted now looks like a $60.4 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (down from yesterday’s early estimate but still exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  Prometheus is looking like a $50.0 million weekend (or so 20th Century Fox is fervently wishing and hoping), down from yesterday’s reported pace and now slightly below the ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $172 million for the weekend, not as robust as it looked yesterday but still up 30% from this weekend last year.

Saturday proved to be a soft day, giving Madagascar 3 a very small bump over Friday’s strong opening and Prometheus a decline from Friday.  Madagascar 3 looks like $20.45 million Friday, $22.086 million Saturday and an estimated $17.814 million Sunday.  Prometheus looks like $21.4 million Friday, $16.125 million Saturday and a very optimistic $12.475 million Sunday.  Both films could easily come in below the $60 million and $50 million respective benchmarks tomorrow when the actual numbers for the entire weekend are released, but we’ll give the studios the benefit of the doubt for now.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Madagascar 3 ($201 million) and Prometheus ($142 million).

Second week films:  Snow White and the Huntsman ($151 million, adjusted down from last week’s initial estimate).

Third week films: Men in Black 3 ($176 million, adjusted down a bit the last week’s projection), Chernobyl Diaries ($18 million, even with last week) and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($41 million, even with last week).

Fourth week films: Battleship ($65 million, down slightly from last week), The Dictator ($63 million, down a touch from last week) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($42 million, even with last week).

Fifth week film: Dark Shadows ($77 million, down a bit from last week’s estimate).

Sixth week films: Marvel’s The Avengers ($607 million, adjusted back down from last week’s estimate).


Weekend 23: June 8-10, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Madagascar 3 Par DW 60.3 201
Prometheus Fox 50.0 142
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni -59% 23.0 151
Men in Black 3 Par -52% 13.5 176
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -47% 10.8 607
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox -28% 3.2 41
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG -39% 2.7 42
Battleship Uni -55% 2.3 65
The Dictator Par -54% 2.1 63
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni +80% 1.6 n/a
Dark Shadows WB -63% 1.4 77


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $172 million total Friday-Sunday, up 30% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 18% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #23 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $172 Madagascar 3 $61, Prometheus $50
2011 $132 Super 8 $35.5, Judy Moody $6, Midnight in Paris $6
2010 $145 Karate Kid $56, The A-Team $26
2009 $132 Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $23, Imagine That $5.5
2008 $176 Incredible Hulk $55, The Happening $30
Avg 2008-11 $146

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend are Rock of Ages from Warner Brothers and That’s My Boy from Sony.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Green Lantern ($53.2 million opening weekend) and Mr Popper’s Penguins ($18.4 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.