AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney), with little in the way of challenge from the other studios, is flying to an easy victory in its 2nd weekend. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, Infinity War fell 72% from last Friday to $30.3M, a worse drop than the parallel days for The Avengers (-64%) and Black Panther (-62%), but slightly better than Age of Ultron (-75%) and Captain America: Civil War (-74%). That suggests a $110M weekend, which would be a bit below Black Panther‘s $111.7M for the #2 Weekend 2 ever (The Force Awakens‘s #1 $149.2M isn’t in play), although since Disney is the studio behind all those numbers, it would be no surprise to see Infinity War ease past Black Panther in Sunday weekend estimates. If Infinity War follows the Ultron pattern, it would end up around $660M in the US, above all Marvel movies except Black Panther, while the pace of the original Avengers or Black Panther itself would bring it to $700M+. At this level, such rankings are more about hype than meaningful differences in success.
The closest “competition” was OVERBOARD (MGM/Pantelion/Lionsgate), which failed to become the mainstream breakout hit that was hoped. Instead, it delivered more or less the same predominantly Spanish-speaking audience as star Eugenio Derbez’s How To Be A Latin Lover, with $4.4M on opening day compared to Lover‘s $3.9M (the latter in 1118 theatres compared to Overboard‘s 1623). That should bring it a $13.5M weekend, enough for a modest profit on low production/marketing costs. But the whole idea of remaking a property like Overboard and co-starring an Anglo female lead like Anna Faris was to move past Derbez’s core audience, and that doesn’t seem to be happening.
TULLY (Fox Searchlight) wasn’t able to capitalize on solid reviews (89% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the presence of Charlize Theron in the lead, with a quiet $1.3M Friday that may mean a $3.5M weekend, not much even considering the moderate 1353-theatre opening. (Director Jason Reitman’s flop Labor Day, at 2584 theatres, started with $5.2M.)
BAD SAMARITAN (Electric) was bad indeed, with a $650K opening day at 2007 theatres that suggests a $1.5M weekend and an instantaneous exit from theatrical release.
The lack of new product was good news for many holdovers. A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) dipped just 32% from last Friday to $2.2M, for a $7.5M weekend that continues to track toward $175M in the US.
I FEEL PRETTY (Voltage/H Brothers/STX) dropped 37% on its 3rd Friday to $1.6M, on its way to a $5M weekend and a US total that may not stretch to $50M.
RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) similarly lost 37% on its 4th Friday to $1.1M, with $4.5M for the weekend, as it heads toward $95M in the US.
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) continues to have something of a second life at the box office thanks to its franchise cousin, down 30% on its 12th Friday to around $1M, for a $3.5M weekend, bound for $700M in the US.
RBG (Magnolia) opened at an unusually large 34 theatres for a documentary, and with a projected $15.5K per-theatre weekend average, it’s on track with the same studio’s I Am Not Your Negro, which started at 43 theatres and averaged $16K on its way to a healthy $7.1M theatrical run.
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