In an appropriately biblical development for this Easter weekend, it appears from preliminary numbers at Deadline that David will defeat Goliath, and the $12M-budgeted HEAVEN IS FOR REAL (TriStar/Sony) will handily outgross the $100M+ TRANSCENDENCE (Warners). On Friday, Heaven pulled in a reported $8M (on top of $7M from Wednesday and Thursday), and although Easter Sunday may dent its particular audience base, it should still reach $20M for the weekend, giving it a $27M total. Transcendence only managed $5M on Friday (which includes $850K from Thursday night), and it may struggle to get beyond $12.5M by Sunday. Heaven had somewhat larger marketing costs than the usual indie faith-based movie, but is nevertheless headed for healthy profit, while Transcendence will need tremendous overseas success just to break even. In fact, Transcendence is barely ahead of the cheapie D-level comedy A HAUNTED HOUSE 2 (Open Road), which had a $4M Friday on its way to a $9-10M weekend. The weekend’s other opener, BEARS (Disney), lags behind with $2.5M on Friday and a $5-6M weekend–at this point, the Disney Earth documentaries are more PSAs than profitable enterprises.
None of the new openings, however, will win the weekend. For the third week in a row, bragging rights are likely to belong to CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER (Disney), down just 20% from last Friday to a superb $10M, and headed for $25M+ for the weekend, which would be down a mere 38% from last week. That would compare to a 51% drop for the third weekend of Iron Man 3, and a 61% drop for Thor 2–and even a 46% fall for Weekend 3 of The Avengers–and indicates fantastic word of mouth. Captain 2 could get to $250M in the US, which would be a whopping 40% higher than the first Captain. (By comparison, Thor 2 was 14% ahead of the first Thor, and Iron Man 3 was 31% above its pre-Avengers predecessor.)
Also holding well is RIO 2 (20th), down a bit over 20% from its opening day to a Friday close to $10M, with a $24M weekend ahead (some of its family audience will also be otherwise engaged on Sunday). It’s headed for a decent but unexceptional $125M in the US, 10% behind the original Rio.)
As for last weekend’s other openings, DRAFT DAY (Summit/Lionsgate) held well, down 33% from last Friday to a still-low $2.3M and a $6.5M weekend. It might reach a $35M total. OCULUS (Relativity), in the way of most low-budget horror movies, fell 60% from its opening day to $2M, with perhaps a $5M weekend and $30M total.
Thanks to spring break and Good Friday, DIVERGENT (Summit/Lionsgate) had a very strong day, steady with last Friday at $2.3M and headed for a $6M weekend. It might still get to $150M in the US. Despite the addition of Heaven Is For Real to the market, GOD’S NOT DEAD (Freestyle) was also dead even with last Friday at $1.6M, and although Easter will also affect its Sunday results, it should be close to $5M for the weekend, on its way to perhaps $60M on its very low costs.
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