There’s usually a box office hangover after a holiday weekend opening, but the Friday-to-Friday drop for SOLO (Lucasfilm/Disney) was particularly sour, down 77% to $8M in preliminary numbers at Deadline, compared to the 73% for last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean V, and 74% for X-Men: Days of Future Past. In fact, it was uncomfortably close to the infamous 81% drop for Batman v Superman. With a likely $28M weekend ahead, Solo‘s status as the first true Star Wars flop (ignoring 2008’s animated The Clone Wars) is solidified, unlikely to reach $225M in the US, which would be down about 58% from Rogue One‘s US total. No doubt high-level discussions are going on regarding what this means for the future of the mega-franchise.
Despite an extra week in the market, DEADPOOL 2 (20th) wasn’t far behind Solo, down 47% from last Friday to $6.5M for a $23M weekend as it heads toward $300M in the US. That will be down a reasonable 20% from the first Deadpool.
ADRIFT (H Brothers/STX) was the best of the weekend’s openings, which isn’t saying much with a $4.4M Friday and $11M weekend. STX only has domestic rights and supposedly only covered 10% of the $35M production cost, but it will have trouble breaking even just on its marketing expenses.
The micro-budgeted UPGRADE (Blumhouse/BH Tilt/Universal) is slightly overperforming thanks to surprisingly positive reviews (86% on Rotten Tomatoes), with a $1.7M Friday that may give it a $4.5M weekend. It might get above the magic $10M number that supposedly guarantees profit for these Tilt titles with their minimal production and marketing costs.
ACTION POINT (Paramount) is a disaster with less than $800K on Friday and a weekend that won’t get much above $2M. Luckily for Paramount, it’s still counting its A Quiet Place money, so this is a blip.
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney) is probably benefiting from the weak interest in Solo, down a mere 31% on its 6th Friday to $2.9M for an $11M weekend, heading for $660M in the US.
BOOK CLUB (Endeavor Content/Paramount) is reaping the benefits of its older audience, with a 24% dip to $2.1M on its 3rd Friday. It should have a $7M weekend, and may top $60M in the US.
The year’s Mothers Day weekend titles are holding nicely on their 4th weekends. LIFE OF THE PARTY (New Line/Warners) dropped 25% Friday-to-Friday to $1M for a $3.5M weekend and a US total that will exceed $50M. The less-expensive BREAKING IN (Universal) lost 32% from last Friday to $750K for a $2.5M weekend as it continues toward $45M in the US.
In limited release, AMERICAN ANIMALS (The Orchard/MoviePass) is pointing toward a fair $25K per-theatre weekend average at 4 arthouses.
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