Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, MOANA (Disney Animation) is going to have a dominant and perhaps even historic Thanksgiving weekend. Disney’s latest blockbuster blew past predictions with a $15.4M opening day (including $2.6M from Tuesday night). That’s better than the $15.2M earned by Frozen (which technically was in its 2d week of release, having opened in a single theatre the week before), and appears to be the #2 day-before-Thanksgiving ever, behind only the $20.8M 6th day of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. If Moana continues to outpace Frozen–rave exit poll results suggest strong word of mouth is likely–and goes over $93.6M by Sunday, it will hold the Thanksgiving weekend wide opening title. With no family competition until Sing opens on December 21, and then the holiday bonanza after that, Moana will be a money-printing machine, and should also have wide international appeal–and in case Disney isn’t having a good enough 2016 already, Rogue One is just around the corner.
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM (Warners) appeared to be dented by Moana‘s arrival with a $11.2M Wednesday that was up just 20% from Tuesday despite the beginning of the long holiday weekend. Other November Harry Potter openings have done much better on the day before Thanksgiving, with Sorcerer’s Stone up 65%, Chamber of Secrets up 84%, Goblet of Fire up 57%, and Deathly Hallows Part 1 up 41%. It appears to be headed for a $55-60M 5-day holiday, and a $225-250M US total, at best tying the lowest-grossing Potter (Prisoner of Askaban‘s $249.5M). This weekend will also feature the film’s critical China/Japan openings, so by Sunday we’ll have a good sense of where Beasts is likely to end up worldwide.
Nothing else was remotely close to those titles. ALLIED (GK/Huahua/Paramount) had an OK $2.9M Wednesday and might reach $18M by Sunday, not much of a start for a project with $150M+ in production/marketing costs. The studio will hope that the international appeal of Brad Pitt and Marion Cottillard can lead it into profit.
BAD SANTA 2 (Broad Green), arriving 13 years after the first Bad Santa, waited too long, with a $1.6M Wednesday and perhaps $9M by Sunday. This was a low-cost project, but will struggle to find breakeven.
Warren Beatty is a pivotal figure in Hollywood history, but he’s 79 years old and his last starring vehicle was 15 years ago (the giant flop Town & Country). On top of that, RULES DON’T APPLY (Regency/20th) was aimed at exactly the same nostalgic older audience as Allied. The result was a cataclysmic $310K on Wednesday, setting it up for a 5-day total that might not get past $2M. 20th and its minions are already spreading the spin that the film didn’t cost that much (it wasn’t hugely expensive, but probably has $100M+ in worldwide costs) and that the studio bore only a piece of the expense. Let’s put it this way: someone is going to lose a fortune on this disaster.
Longer-running holdovers were led by DOCTOR STRANGE (Marvel/Disney), which earned $2.8M on Wednesday and should be over $200M in the US by Sunday, on its way to $225M or so. TROLLS (DreamWorks Animation/20th) had a similar Wednesday to Doctor Strange and should be on track for a $160M US total by Sunday. ARRIVAL (FilmNation/Paramount) took in $2.1M on Wednesday and is heading toward a very respectable $80-85M in the US.
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