July 1, 2012


YouTube Preview Image


And now we know which was more front-loaded.

OPENINGS:  According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, TED (Universal) fell 10-15% from Friday to Saturday, which is about the same way the original Hangover played.  The weekend should still get to at least $50M, ahead of Hangover, making it potentially the highest-opening original R-rated comedy ever. MAGIC MIKE (Warners), though, fell a ghastly 40% from Friday to Saturday (even worse than Sex and the City‘s 34% Saturday drop), and will struggle to reach $38M for the weekend, even though the 2 movies were within $800K of each other on Friday.  Mike is modestly budgeted, so even if it only doubles its opening weekend, it’ll be a success–but far from the hit it first appeared to be.

MADEA’S WITNESS PROTECTION (Lionsgate) fell only about 5% from Friday, and should deliver the standard profit to Tyler Perry and Lionsgate, with a $27M weekend that’s slightly higher than the last Madea movie.  DreamWorks and Disney, though, would have been well-advised to hold PEOPLE LIKE US, which could only manage a $4M weekend, for late summer, where their The Help found a foothold last year.

HOLDOVERS:  BRAVE (Pixar/Disney) is estimating a 47% Weekend 2 drop, worse than all other recent Pixars except WALL-E (which doesn’t really count, because its 2d weekend included typically low-grossing July 4) and the dreaded Cars 2.  No one expected ABRAHAM LINCOLN:  VAMPIRE HUNTER (20th) to hold well, and it didn’t, with a $6M weekend that could end up being down 65%.  Among older releases, MADAGASCAR 3 (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) continued to hold much better, with about a 35% drop, than PROMETHEUS (20th) and SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN (Universal), both at about 45-50%, while Tom Cruise’s June continued to be a notably bad one as ROCK OF AGES (Warners) sank along with his marriage.

LIMITED RELEASES:  BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (Fox Searchlight) is off to a very strong $50K per-theatre start at 4 NY/LA theatres.  TO ROME WITH LOVE (Sony Classics) had its first expansion to 29 theatres and should have a per-theatre number around $20K, less good than the $33K Midnight in Paris averaged at 58 theatres.  MOONRISE KINGDOM (Focus/Universal) expanded to a near-wide release at 854 theatres, and should have a OK $5-6K per-theatre average.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY All Weekend For Updated Boxoffice and Analysis!

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."