And now we know which was more front-loaded.
OPENINGS: According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, TED (Universal) fell 10-15% from Friday to Saturday, which is about the same way the original Hangover played. The weekend should still get to at least $50M, ahead of Hangover, making it potentially the highest-opening original R-rated comedy ever. MAGIC MIKE (Warners), though, fell a ghastly 40% from Friday to Saturday (even worse than Sex and the City‘s 34% Saturday drop), and will struggle to reach $38M for the weekend, even though the 2 movies were within $800K of each other on Friday. Mike is modestly budgeted, so even if it only doubles its opening weekend, it’ll be a success–but far from the hit it first appeared to be.
MADEA’S WITNESS PROTECTION (Lionsgate) fell only about 5% from Friday, and should deliver the standard profit to Tyler Perry and Lionsgate, with a $27M weekend that’s slightly higher than the last Madea movie. DreamWorks and Disney, though, would have been well-advised to hold PEOPLE LIKE US, which could only manage a $4M weekend, for late summer, where their The Help found a foothold last year.
HOLDOVERS: BRAVE (Pixar/Disney) is estimating a 47% Weekend 2 drop, worse than all other recent Pixars except WALL-E (which doesn’t really count, because its 2d weekend included typically low-grossing July 4) and the dreaded Cars 2. No one expected ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER (20th) to hold well, and it didn’t, with a $6M weekend that could end up being down 65%. Among older releases, MADAGASCAR 3 (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) continued to hold much better, with about a 35% drop, than PROMETHEUS (20th) and SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN (Universal), both at about 45-50%, while Tom Cruise’s June continued to be a notably bad one as ROCK OF AGES (Warners) sank along with his marriage.
LIMITED RELEASES: BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (Fox Searchlight) is off to a very strong $50K per-theatre start at 4 NY/LA theatres. TO ROME WITH LOVE (Sony Classics) had its first expansion to 29 theatres and should have a per-theatre number around $20K, less good than the $33K Midnight in Paris averaged at 58 theatres. MOONRISE KINGDOM (Focus/Universal) expanded to a near-wide release at 854 theatres, and should have a OK $5-6K per-theatre average.
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