May 2, 2015

FRIDAY 5.1.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #18 of 2015 looks like $249 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norm for this weekend as summer gets going early.

Opening at 4,276 theaters Friday, Avengers: Age of Ultron from Marvel and Disney is on track for a $210.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $220.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week and above the all-time record three-day opening of $207.4 million for Marvel’s The Avengers May  4-6, 2012). The film is pacing toward a still-huge $49,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very positive (75% positive overall and 73% positive with top critics).  Age of Ultron is headed for $600 million total domestic.

For comparisons to previous Marvel films check out our forecast from earlier this week.

Weekend 18: May 1-3, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Avengers: Age of Ultron Dis [220.0] 210.0 84.5 600
Furious 7 Uni [8.2] 7.3 2.1 351
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 Sony [7.9] 7.2 1.8 68
Age of Adaline LG [7.0] 6.9 2.2 41
Home Fox/DWA [4.7] 3.5 .87 162
Cinderella Dis [n/a] 3.2 .81 199
Unfriended Uni [2.7] 2.3 .77 33
Ex Machina A24 [2.8] 2.1 .72 16
The Longest Ride Fox [2.3] 1.9 .61 37
Woman in Gold Weins [2.1] 1.8 .48 31
Monkey Kingdom Dis [n/a] 1.4 .39 21
Get Hard WB [1.9] 1.2 n/a 89

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Furious 7 is headed for $7.3 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and somewhat below our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $351 million.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is headed for $7.2 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and slightly below our $7.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $68 million.

Age of Adaline is headed for $6.9 million this weekend (down -48% from last weekend and near our $7.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $41 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $249 million total Friday-Sunday, up +31% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +73% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 18 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $249 Avengers Age of Ultron $210
2014 $145 Amazing Spider-Man 2 $91.6
2013 $211 Iron Man 3 $174.1
2012 $250 Marvel’s The Avengers $207.4
2011 $155 Thor $65.7, Jumping the Broom $15.2, Something Borrowed $13.9
Avg 2011-14 $190

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.