May 16, 2015

FRIDAY 5.15.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #20 of 2015 looks like $172 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for this weekend.

Opening at 3,473 theaters Friday, Pitch Perfect 2 from Universal is on track for a $69.0 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $53.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a hefty $19,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is solid (67% positive overall and 65% positive with top critics). Pitch Perfect 2 is headed for $177 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,702 theaters Friday, Mad Max: Fury Road from Warner Brothers is headed for a $43.0 million opening weekend (very near our $43.5 million forecast).  The film is on track for a decent $11,600 per theater average for the weekend.  Critical sentiment is nearly perfect: 98% positive overall and 98% positive with top critics).  Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $133 million total domestic.

Weekend 20: May 15-17, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Pitch Perfect 2 Uni [53.0] 69.0 27.8 177
Mad Max: Fury Road WB [43.5] 43.0 16.8 133
Avengers: Age of Ultron Dis [36.2] 37.9 10.0 460
Hot Pursuit WB [6.3] 5.3 1.8 30
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 Sony [3.4] 3.6 .86 71
Furious 7 Uni [3.0] 3.3 .96 353
Age of Adaline LG [3.4] 3.1 1.0 43
Home Fox/DWA [2.2] 2.1 .50 162
Ex Machina A24 [2.2] 1.8 .59 25
Woman in Gold Weins [1.1] 1.3 .32 33

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Avengers: Age of Ultron is headed for $37.9 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and slightly above our $36.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $460 million.

Hot Pursuit is headed for $5.3 million this weekend (down -62% from last weekend and below our $6.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $30 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $172 million total Friday-Sunday, up +12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +2% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 20 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $172 Pitch Perfect 2 $69.0, Mad Max: Fury Road $43.0
2014 $170 Godzilla $93.2, Million Dollar Arm $10.5
2013 $148 Star Trek Into Darkness $70.6
2012 $136 Battleship $25.5, The Dictator $17.4, What to Expect When You’re Expecting $10.5
2011 $159 Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0
Avg 2011-14 $153

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.