Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #23 of 2015 looks like $132 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down significantly from the norm for this weekend as the lame summer continues.
Opening at 3,711 theaters Friday, Spy from Fox is on track for a $32.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $39.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an above average $8,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (95% positive overall and 91% positive with top critics). Spy is headed for $112 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,002 theaters Friday, Insidious Chapter 3 from Focus/ Universal is headed for a $23.9 million opening weekend (somewhat below our $28.0 million forecast). The film is on track for a decent $7,900 per theater average for the weekend. Critical sentiment is positive, especially solid for a horror sequel: 59% positive overall and 62% positive with top critics). Insidious Chapter 3 is headed for $66 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,108 theaters Wednesday, Entourage from Warner Brothers is headed for a $10.9 million opening weekend (below our $17.0 million forecast). The film is on track for a pitiful $3,500 per theater average for the weekend. Through Sunday, the film should total $18.3 million for the first five days. Critical sentiment is pretty negative: only 30% positive overall and 24% positive with top critics). Entourage is headed for $33 million total domestic.
| Weekend 23: June 5-7, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Spy | Fox | [39.5] | 32.0 | 10.25 | 112 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [26.8] | 25.0 | 7.65 | 157 | |
| Insidious Chapter 3 | Foc/Uni | [28.0] | 23.9 | 10.40 | 66 | |
| Entourage | WB | [17.0] | 10.9 | 3.71 | 33 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [7.9] | 8.4 | 2.60 | 184 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [7.6] | 8.3 | 2.31 | 158 | |
| Tomorrowland | Dis | [7.7] | 8.1 | 2.15 | 95 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [6.3] | 7.1 | 1.83 | 456 | |
| Aloha | Sony | [4.6] | 3.5 | 1.10 | 20 | |
| Poltergeist | Fox | [3.2] | 2.7 | 0.87 | 48 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
San Andreas is headed for $25.0 million this weekend (down -54% from last weekend and near our $26.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $157 million.
Pitch Perfect 2 is headed for $8.4 million this weekend (down -43% from last weekend and near our $7.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $184 million.
Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $8.3 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and near our $7.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $158 million.
Tomorrowland is headed for $8.1 million this weekend (down -43% from last weekend and near our $7.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $95 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $132 million total Friday-Sunday, down -13% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -16% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 23 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $132 | Spy $32.0, Insidious Chapter 3 $23.9, Entourage $10.9 | |
| 2014 | $157 | Fault In Our Stars $48.0, Edge of Tomorrow $28.8 | |
| 2013 | $143 | The Purge $34.1, The Internship $17.3 | |
| 2012 | $174 | Madagascar 3 $60.3, Prometheus $51.1 | |
| 2011 | $132 | Super 8 $35.5, Judy Moody… $6.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $152 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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