Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #29 of 2015 looks like $176 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, very close to the norm for this weekend but way above last year’s weak weekend.
Opening at 3,856 theaters Friday, Ant-Man from Marvel and Disney is on track for a $57.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $64.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a good $14,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very solid (80% positive overall and 76% positive with top critics). Ant-Man is headed for $171 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,157 theaters Friday, Trainwreck from Universal is on track for a $30.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $27.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a decent $9,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite positive (85% positive overall and 82% positive with top critics). Trainwreck is headed for $104 million total domestic.
| Weekend 29: July 17-19, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ant-Man | Dis | [64.5] | 57.5 | 22.6 | 171 | |
| Minions | Uni | [57.1] | 47.0 | 14.6 | 325 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | [27.5] | 30.0 | 10.7 | 104 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [10.6] | 11.0 | 3.4 | 348 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [10.3] | 10.4 | 3.2 | 651 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | [6.6] | 5.0 | 1.7 | 97 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | [5.4] | 4.4 | 1.7 | 77 | |
| The Gallows | WB | [3.3] | 3.8 | 1.3 | 20 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | [2.7] | 2.3 | .76 | 82 | |
| Self/Less | Foc | [2.3] | n/a | n/a | 8 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Minions is headed for $47.0 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and below our $57.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $325 million.
Inside Out is headed for $11.0 million this weekend (down -38% from last weekend and near our $10.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $348 million.
Jurassic World is headed for $10.4 million this weekend (down -43% from last weekend and very near our $10.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $651 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $176 million total Friday-Sunday, down -2% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up +31% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 29 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $176 | Ant-Man $57.5, Trainwreck $30.0 | |
| 2014 | $135 | The Purge: Anarchy $29.8, Planes: Fire & Rescue $17.5, Sex Tape $14.6 | |
| 2013 | $181 | The Conjuring $41.9, Turbo $21.3, Red 2 $18.0, R.I.P.D. $12.7 | |
| 2012 | $224 | The Dark Knight $160.9 | |
| 2011 | $181 | Captain America: The First Avenger $65.1, Friends with Benefits $18.6 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $180 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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