August 3, 2013

FRIDAY AUGUST 2 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #31 of 2013 looks like a surprisingly weak $124 million for the top 12 films, down 5% from the average for this weekend the past few years (the first such decline since the weekend of June 7-9 eight weeks ago). 

Opening at 3,025 theaters Friday, 2 Guns from Universal grossed $10 million Friday and is on track for a $28.5 million opening weekend (somewhat below the $34.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,400 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years but hardly worthy of celebration). Critical sentiment is mediocre at best (57% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but a soft 44% with top critics). 2 Guns is headed for $84 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,866 theaters Wednesday, The Smurfs 2 from Sony grossed $5.5 million Friday and is on track for a $17.7 million opening weekend (way under our $27.5 million forecast). The sequel is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,900 per theater for the weekend. With $9.6 million Wednesday-Thursday, Smurfs 2 should total $27 through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is disastrous: only 12% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a similar 13% positive with top critics. The Smurfs 2 is headed for $95 million total domestic, well below the $142.6 million for The Smurfs (released July 29, 2011).  Check back tomorrow to see if the rest of the world bails out Sony and enjoys the sequel as much as the first Smurfs (an impressive $421.1 million overseas).

The Wolverine has been adjusted to $142 million domestic total, and The Conjuring has been bumped up to $149 million.

Weekend 31: August 2-4, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
2 Guns Uni [34.0] 28.5 10.0 84
The Wolverine Fox [23.5] 20.5 6.4 142
Smurfs 2 Sony [27.5] 17.7 5.5 95
The Conjuring WB [12.8] 13.3 4.3 149
Despicable Me 2 Uni [9.4] 10.5 3.1 365
Grown Ups 2 Sony [6.0] 7.7 2.4 136
Turbo Fox/DWA [7.4] 6.2 1.8 93
Red 2 Summit [4.9] 5.5 1.6 58
The Heat Fox [4.4] 4.6 1.4 168
Pacific Rim WB [3.7] 4.5 1.3 106
The Way, Way Back Fox 2.9 .80 25
Fruitvale Station Weins [3.2] 2.6 .75 21

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total Friday-Sunday, down 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 9% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #31 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $125 2 Guns $28.5, Smurfs 2 $17.7
2012 $114 Total Recall $25.6, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days $14.6
2011 $158 Rise of the Planet of the Apes $54.8, The Change-Up $13.5
2010 $123 The Other Guys $35.5, Step Up 3-D $15.8
2009 $132 G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $54.7, Julie & Julia $20.0, Perfect Getaway $5.9
Avg 2009-12 $132

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.