Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #51 is on pace for a horrifying $98 million. This weekend of the year is tricky because sometimes it contains Christmas Day itself (such as 2009 when this weekend was December 25-27 and totaled a massive $260 million) and other times it is just a slow warm up to the big December 25-Jan 1 period. The best comparison is 2007, the last time this weekend was December 21-23. That weekend managed a respectable $152 million with the opening of National Treasure: Book of Secrets ($44.8 million) and the second weekends of I Am Legend ($33.5 million) and Alvin and the Chipmunks ($28.2 million).
Nothing like that this weekend. The openers are weak, and Jack Reacher is the only film to hit our very modest forecast. The other openers are failing to hit our very low bars. And The Hobbit, the only real engine of this weekend, is underwhelming in weekend two.
| Weekend 51: December 21-23, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Hobbit | WB | [41.5] | 34.0 | 10.2 | 255 | |
| Jack Reacher | Par | [15.0] | 15.5 | 5.1 | 85 | |
| This Is 40 | Uni | [14.0] | 11.5 | 3.7 | 70 | |
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | [5.6] | 6.8 | 1.6 | 102 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | [5.5] | 5.1 | 1.4 | 139 | |
| Monsters, Inc. 3D | Dis | [9.5] | 5.0 | 1.4 | 50 | |
| The Guilt Trip | Par | [6.8] | 4.8 | 1.5 | 49 | |
| Skyfall | Sony | [4.2] | 4.2 | 1.3 | 287 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | [3.7] | 3.8 | 1.0 | 92 | |
| Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum | [3.1] | 2.7 | .77 | 287 | |
| Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away | Par | [3.0] | 2.3 | .80 | 38 | |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | [—] | 2.1 | .48 | 178 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $98 million total Friday-Sunday, down 43% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 14% from the weak same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #51 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2012 | $98 | Jack Reacher $15.5, This Is 40 $11.5, Monsters Inc 3D $5, Guilt Trip $5 | |
| 2011 | $114 | Girl Dragon Tattoo $13, Adventures Tintin $10, We Bought Zoo $9 | |
| 2010 | $132 | Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver’s Travels $6 | |
| 2009 | $260 | Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49, It’s Complicated $22 | |
| 2008 | $180 | Marley & Me $36, Curious Case Ben Button $27, Bedtime Stories $27 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $172 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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