June 28, 2014

FRIDAY JUNE 27 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #26 of 2014 looks like $172 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 9% below the norm for this weekend and 6% below the same weekend last year as the lackluster summer 2014 rolls on.  

Opening at 4,233 theaters, Transformers: Age of Extinction from Paramount grossed $41.1 million through Friday and is on track for a $102.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $100.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid three-day average of $24,600 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (18% positive overall and a hostile 6% positive with top critics). Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $278 million total domestic.

Previous Transformers Films

Transformers: Dark of the Moon was released June 29, 2011, had a 36% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $352.4 million domestic, $771.4 million overseas and $1.124 billion worldwide.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was released June 24, 2009, had a 19% positive review score, and grossed $402.1 million domestic, $434.2 million overseas and $836.3 million worldwide.

Transformers was released July 3, 2007, had a 57% positive review score, and grossed $319.2 million domestic, $390.5 million overseas and $709.7 million worldwide.

22 Jump Street is headed for $15.1 million this weekend (down 45% from last weekend and slightly above our $14.7 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted up to $187 million.  How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $13.1 million this weekend (down 47% from last weekend and below our $14.7 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted to $166 million.    Think Like a Man Too is headed for $10.3 million this weekend (down 65% from last weekend and below our $13.1 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Think Like a Man Too has been adjusted to $67 million.

Weekend 26: June 27-29, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Transformers: Age of Extinction Par [100.0] 102.0 41.1 278
22 Jump Street Sony [14.7] 15.1 5.1 187
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox [14.7] 13.1 4.1 166
Think Like a Man Too Sony [13.1] 10.3 3.4 67
Maleficent Dis [8.0] 8.3 2.6 230
Jersey Boys WB [7.5] 7.0 2.3 44
Edge of Tomorrow WB [5.3] 5.1 1.6 102
The Fault in Our Stars Fox [5.1] 5.0 1.8 122
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [3.2] 3.1 0.9 235
Chef OpenR [1.2] 1.6 0.4 25
Godzilla WB [—] 0.8 0.2 197
Neighbors Uni [—] 0.7 0.2 153

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $172 million total Friday-Sunday, down 9% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 6% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 26 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $172 Transformers: Age of Extinction $102.0
2013 $183 The Heat $39.1, White House Down $24.9
2012 $197 Ted $54.4, Magic Mike $39.1, TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection $25.4
2011 $192 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1
2010 $181 Grown Ups $40.5, Knight & Day $20.1
Avg 2010-13 $190

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.