October 12, 2013

FRIDAY OCTOBER 11 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #41 of 2013 looks like an okay $111 million for the top 12 films, down 8% from last year’s weekend but equal to the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,874 theaters Friday, Captain Phillips from Sony Pictures grossed $8.5 million Friday and is on track for $26.5 million opening weekend (slightly above the $23.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,800 per theater for the weekend (somewhat above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (95% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 89% positive with top critics). Captain Phillips is headed for $86 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,538 theaters Friday, Machete Kills from Open Road Films grossed $1.4 million Friday and is pacing toward a very weak $4.0 million opening weekend (well under our already bearish $8.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a horrific three-day average of $1,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (30% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 19% positive with top critics). Machete Kills is headed for a quick exit and perhaps $9 million total domestic, way below the $26.6 million domestic total for Machete which opened with $11.4 million September 3-5, 2010.

Gravity has been upgraded significantly to $250 million total domestic thanks to a terrific $45.0 million projection for the second weekend (down a mere 19% from the strong opening weekend).  The film should total $124 million through Sunday.  The latest seven days (Monday-Sunday) looks to be $68 million, a 21% increase from the opening three days ($55.5 million).  Most films decline slightly in the last seven days versus the first three days, and it is unusually positive to see the last seven days match or grow a few percentage points from the first three.  But a 21% increase?  We have to go back to a few James Cameron films (Avatar and even Titanic to find a pattern like this).  Gravity looks like a multi-stage rocket that is still on its first stage.

Weekend 41: October 11-13, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Gravity WB [39.5] 45.0 12.7 250
Captain Phillips Sony [23.5] 26.5 8.5 86
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony [14.2] 14.5 3.6 113
Machete Kills OpenRoad [8.0] 4.0 1.4 9
Runner Runner Fox [3.8] 3.8 1.2 19
Prisoners WB [3.5] 3.7 1.1 63
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [2.5] 2.7 .80 82
Rush  Uni [2.3] 2.4 .71 29
Don Jon Rel [2.4] 2.3 .76 26
Enough Said Fox S [—] 2.0 .53 n/a
Baggage Claim Fox [2.2] 1.9 .58 19

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $111 million total Friday-Sunday, equal to the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 8% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 41 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $111 Captain Phillips $26.5, Machete Kills $4.0
2012 $121 Argo $19.5, Sinister $18.0, Here Comes the Boom $11.8
2011 $77 Footloose $15.6, The Thing $8.5, The Big Year $3.3
2010 $120 Jackass 3-D $50.4, Red $21.8
2009 $128 Where the Wild Things Are $32.7, Law Abiding Citizen $21.0, Paranormal Activity $19.6
Avg 2009-12 $111

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.