April 10, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Now 14 full weeks into 2012, year-to-date domestic box office is still running 27% ahead of last year’s dreadful pace, and the year-to-date total is still fully 15% ahead of the comparable period’s average for the last several years.   Updated final domestic gross estimates are available below for recent releases, with The Hunger Games now standing at an estimated $379 million in North America.   

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between April 2 and April 8 grossed a very solid $175 million, up 24% from the same week in 2011 and up 14% from the four-year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is still running 27% ahead of 2011 and still 15% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.

All Wide-Release Films April 2-8
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #14     $142    $153    $175    +24%

Year to Date $2071   $2288   $2624   +27%    +15%

Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates

Studio estimates were unusually accurate this weekend.  The third weekend of The Hunger Games came in at $33.112 million, only 1.2% below the $33.5 million studio estimate released Sunday morning.  American Reunion came in at $21.514 million for its opening weekend, 0.1% above the $21.5 million studio estimate.  And Titanic (3D) delivered $17.285 million in its actual Friday-Sunday run, only 0.4% below the $17.35 million studio estimate Sunday morning.           

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

The Hunger Games $379 million (99 percentile) 
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax $214 million (94 percentile) 
21 Jump Street $136 million (86 percentile) 
Wrath of the Titans $88 million (73 percentile) 
American Reunion $73 million (68 percentile) 
John Carter $70 million (67 percentile)   
Act of Valor $71 million (67 percentile) 
Mirror Mirror $62 million (63 percentile) 

Titanic (3D) $62 million (63 percentile) 
Project X $55 million (59 percentile) 
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds $35 million (42 percentile) 
Wanderlust $17 million (17 percentile) 

A Thousand Words $17 million (17 percentile) 
Silent House $11 million (8 percentile)

Weekend Predictions for April 13-15 should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.