April 16, 2012


>Now 15 full weeks into 2012, year-to-date domestic box office is running 25% ahead of last year’s pace (down from the +27% pace last week because Rio was a rare 2011 hit this time last year), while the year-to-date total is still fully 15% ahead of the comparable period’s average for the last several years.   Updated final domestic gross estimates are available below for recent releases, with The Hunger Games now standing at an estimated $382 million in North America (a slight upward adjustment from last week).   

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between April 9 and April 15 grossed a decent $154 million, up 4% from the same week in 2011 but up 14% from the four-year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 25% ahead of 2011 (down from +27% through last week) and still 15% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.

All Wide-Release Films April 9-15
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #15     $148    $135    $154    + 4%

Year to Date $2219   $2423   $2778   +25%    +15%

Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates

Studio estimates were very accurate this weekend for the films opening wide.  The Three Stooges opened with $17.010 million, down only 0.5% from the $17.100 million studio estimate released Sunday morning (based on Friday and Saturday actual box office).  The Cabin in the Woods opened with $14.744 million, down only 0.7% from the $14.850 million studio estimate.  And Lockout opened with $6.232 million, a mere 0.3% below the $6.250 million studio estimate.             

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

The Hunger Games $382 million (99 percentile) 
21 Jump Street $140 million (87 percentile) 
Wrath of the Titans $87 million (73 percentile) 
Titanic (3D) $80 million (72 percentile)  [Up sharply from last week’s estimate]
John Carter $70 million (67 percentile)   
Mirror Mirror $69 million (67 percentile)  
American Reunion $64 million (64 percentile) [Down significantly from last week’s estimate] 
The Three Stooges $60 million (60 percentile) 
The Cabin in the Woods $46 million (53 percentile) 
A Thousand Words $18 million (18 percentile) 
Lockout $11 million (8 percentile) 
Friends with Kids $8 million (3 percentile)

Weekend Predictions for April 20-22 (featuring the openings of The Lucky One, Think Like a Man and Chimpanzee) should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.