February 14, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Six full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year’s anemic pace and now has moved slightly ahead of the comparable period’s average for the last several years.  The Vow officially opened at #1 with $41,202,458 the first three days (missing the studio estimate of $41,700,000 issued Sunday morning).  Safe House was close behind at #2 with $40,172,720 (well ahead of the studio estimate of $39,300,000).  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island opened in third place with $27,335,363 (extremely close to the $27,550,000 studio estimate).  The Phantom Menace in 3D officially opened in fourth place with $22,469,932 million (not surprisingly missing the $23,000,000 studio estimate).              

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between February 6 and February 12 grossed $214 million, up 30% from the same week in 2011 and up 9% from the four year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 28% ahead of 2011 and now 3% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films February 6-12
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #6      $165    $197    $214   
+30%    + 9%

Year to Date $860    $1070   $1100   +28%    + 3%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

Safe House $117 million (83 percentile) 
The Vow $115 million (82 percentile) 
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $78 million (71 percentile) 
Chronicle $70 million (67 percentile) 
Contraband $68 million (67 percentile) 
Underworld Awakening $65 million (65 percentile) 
Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace 3D $61 million (62 percentile) 
The Woman in Black $57 million (59 percentile) 

The Grey $56 million (59 percentile) 
Red Tails $51 million (56 percentile) 
Beauty and the Beast 3D $49 million (55 percentile) 
The Devil Inside $48 million (54 percentile) 
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $34 million (41 percentile) 
The Artist $32 million (37 percentile) 
Joyful Noise $30 million (34 million) 
The Iron Lady $27 million (30 percentile) 
One for the Money $25 million (27 percentile) 
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $24 million (25 percentile) 
Big Miracle $24 million (25 percentile) 
Haywire $20 million (21 percentile)   
Man on a Ledge $19 million (20 percentile) 

Weekend Predictions for February 17-19 should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.