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The past week (seven days ending Sunday) came in down a large 18% versus last year’s comparable week (the fourth significant decline in a row). Year-to-date box office is down 9% versus last year.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between July 4 and July 10 grossed $264 million, down 18% versus the same week in 2010 and down 4% from the average comparable week the past four years. Year to date, all films are down 8.7% from the same period last year (down from 8.1% last week), and all films year-to-date are down 1% versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years. After four down weeks in a row, we should see an up week this current week because of the opening of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 on Friday.
All Films July 4-10
(millions) 4yr vs vs
2010 Avg 2011 2010 Avg
Week #27 $323 $276 $264 -18% – 4%
Year to Date $5814 $5365 $5310
– 9% – 1%Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($383 million, 99th percentile for all wide releases the past two years)
Cars 2 ($190 million, 92nd percentile)
X-Men: First Class ($148 million, 88th percentile)
Super 8 ($137 million, 87th percentile)
Green Lantern ($117 million, 83rd percentile)
Bad Teacher ($104 million, 79th percentile)
Horrible Bosses ($98 million, 78th percentile)
Mr Popper’s Penguins ($69 million, 67th percentile)
Zookeeper ($63 million, 64th percentile)
Larry Crowne ($39 million, 46th percentile)
Monte Carlo ($24 million, 26th percentile)
Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections
The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) for the top two movies were surprisingly predictive of the actual weekend figures out today. Zookeeper, however, came in about $1 million below the Sunday projection.
Weekend of Sunday Monday Showbuzz
July 4-10 Studio Weekend Domestic
(millions) Estimate Actual Total
Transformers 3 (Par) $47.0 $47.1 $383+
Horrible Bosses (WB) $28.1 $28.3 $ 98
Zookeeper (Sony) $21.0 $20.1 $ 63
Cars 2 (Dis) $15.2 $15.2 $190+
Bad Teacher (Sony) $ 9.0 $ 8.9 $104+
Larry Crowne (Uni) $ 6.3 $ 5.9 $ 39
Super 8 (Par) $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $137
Monte Carlo (Fox) $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 24
Green Lantern (WB) $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $117
Mr Popper’s Penguins (Fox) $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 69
Midnight in Paris (Sony) $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 49
Bridesmaids (Uni) $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $165
Look for the Summer Movie Draft update later today (Monday).
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