July 25, 2011


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , ,


The past week (seven days ending Sunday) came in up 16% versus last year’s comparable week (the second significant increase in as many weeks).  Year-to-date box office is now down 6% versus last year.   

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between July 18 and July 24 grossed $289 million, up 16% versus the same week in 2010 and up 11% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are down 6% from the same period last year (down from -7% last week), and all films year-to-date are flat versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years.  
All Films July 18-24
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #29     $250    $261    $289   
+16%    +11%

Year to Date $6329   $5909   $5930   – 6%    – 0%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now:  

Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($372 million, 99th percentile for all wide releases the past two years)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($367 million, 99th percentile)

Cars 2 ($192 million, 93rd percentile)
Captain America ($190, 93rd percentile)
Horrible Bosses ($120 million, 84th percentile)
Green Lantern ($114 million, 82nd percentile)

Bad Teacher ($103 million, 79th percentile)
Zookeeper ($83 million, 72nd percentile)
Friends with Benefits ($70 million, 67th percentile)

Mr Popper’s Penguins ($68 million, 67th percentile)
Larry Crowne ($37 million, 44th percentile)
Winnie the Pooh ($34 million, 42nd percentile)
Monte Carlo ($23 million, 24th percentile)

Note Harry Potter’s domestic final estimate is now slightly below Transformers’.

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections

The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) were high for Captain America ($700,000 higher than the actual weekend) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (also an over-estimate of $700,000).  [Mitch Salem footnote:  not surprisingly, the reduction in Captain America‘s gross means it didn’t beat out Thor after all for biggest superhero opening of the summer.]  The Sunday estimates for the other movies were close to the actual weekend results out today.  

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      July 18-24                 Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Captain America           (Par)   $65.8    $65.1     $190
Harry Potter 8            
(WB)   $48.1    $47.4     $367–

Friends with Benefits    (Sony)   $18.5    $18.6     $ 70
Transformers 3           
(Par)   $12.0    $12.1     $372
Horrible Bosses            (WB)   $11.7    $11.9     $120+

Zookeeper                (Sony)   $ 8.7    $ 8.7     $ 83+ 
Cars 2                    (Dis)   $ 5.7    $ 5.7     $192
Winnie the Pooh           (Dis)   $ 5.1    $ 5.2     $ 34
Bad Teacher              (Sony)   $ 2.6    $ 2.6     $103
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)   $ 1.9    $ 1.8     $ 50

Look for the Summer Movie Draft update later today (Monday).

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.