April 3, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , ,

>Now 13 full weeks into 2012, year-to-date domestic box office is running 27% ahead of last year’s iceberg-dead-ahead pace, and the year-to-date total is still fully 15% ahead of the comparable period’s average for the last several years.      

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between March 26 and April 1 grossed a strong $195 million, up 32% from the same week in 2011 and up 16% from the four-year average for the comparable week.  To put the $195 million weekly volume in perspective, that level of business is not usually seen until the second or third week of May in a normal year.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 27% ahead of 2011 (up slightly from 26% last week) and still 15% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.

All Wide-Release Films March 26-April 1
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #13     $148    $169    $195    +32%

Year to Date $1930   $2135   $2449   +27%    +15%

Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates

The second weekend of The Hunger Games came in at $58.551 million, down a fairly sizable 4.2% from the $61.0 million studio estimate issued by Lionsgate on Sunday morning.  Friday’s number was down a big 72% from the stunning opening day number the week before, but then the second Saturday rallied and was down a very respectable 51% from the first Saturday.  Lionsgate was hoping for a similar kind of hold Sunday, but the film declined 56.5% from the first Sunday when the actual results came in today.  The official total through Sunday stands at $248.484 million — crossing the notable $250 million domestic line had to wait until sometime today.  Updated final domestic gross estimates for The Hunger Games and the other films playing in wide release can be found below.  The actual number for the Wrath of the Titans opening weekend ($33.457 million) was reasonably close to the studio estimate (2.2% below the $34.2 million issued Sunday).  In contrast, the actual opening weekend number for Mirror Mirror was almost 5% below the studio estimate ($18.132 million versus $19.0 million), indicating Sunday was nowhere near the rosiest scenario for Relativity.           

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

The Hunger Games $375 million (99 percentile)
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax $213 million (94 percentile)
21 Jump Street $132 million (86 percentile) 
Wrath of the Titans $90 million (74 percentile)
John Carter $72 million (68 percentile)  
Act of Valor $71 million (67 percentile) 
Project X $55 million (59 percentile) 
Mirror Mirror $49 million (55 percentile)

Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds $35 million (42 percentile) 

Wanderlust $17 million (17 percentile) 

A Thousand Words $16 million (15 percentile) 
Silent House $11 million (8 percentile)

Weekend Predictions for April 6-8 should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.