December 31, 2011

HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: Early Friday Numbers – 12/30/11


Deadline has initial boxoffice figures for Friday, and if the numbers hold, the results seem to be a healthy amount higher than last year’s Friday before New Year’s, allowing the holiday period–and the year–to end on an up note. (Note, however, that overall comparisons to 2010’s holidays are skewed by the fact that 2011 had more new films in release this week than was the case a year ago, increasing the 2011 numbers by sheer tonnage.)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Leads the way, as it has all through the holidays, with a 30% increase from Thursday to $10.7M.  That should get it to around $140M by Monday, and a total gross somewhere between the finals of the first ($180M) and second ($215M) Mission movies.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners): A 17% increase to $7.4M, which projects to around $135M at the end of the weekend and a final result around $160-170M, about 20% less than the first Sherlock.
ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  A smaller 7% hike from Thursday to $7M, meaning probably $100M by Jan 2 and a $130M total that’s far lower than the $217-220M scored by the other Alvin pictures.
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  The studio stopped reporting grosses mid-week (never a good sign), but its $5.3M on Friday is probably up around 15% from Thursday, and should mean around $60M by Monday and a very disappointing ultimate gross of $80M or so.  (Tattoo was supposed to be Fincher’s “commercial” hit after the “art-house” Social Network,but at those numbers, it’ll wind up 20% behind the far lower-budgeted film.)
WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Up 15% to around $4.7M, which means around $45M for the holidays and perhaps $70M in all.  That’s a lot better than Crowe’s flop Elizabethtown, but far from a hit.
WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A good 25+% increase to $4.6M, but that still puts it in the same neighborhood as We Bought A Zoo at a far higher budget, unless Oscar attention moves it up.
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Spielberg’s other disappointment should have a modest 7% increase to $4.4M, giving it a soft $50M by Monday and another $70M total.
NEW YEAR’S EVE (Warners):  One day from its sell-through date, with another 25-30% increase to $2.3M.  It should collapse for good on Sunday and get little higher than $50M in all.
THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Managed a 30% increase to $1.6M, but percentages don’t matter much at those numbers.  Its final total may not even reach $20M.
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis all holiday weekend!


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."